How Good Is Crop Insurance: Is This Strange?

From Bloomberg, hat tip Farm Policy:

The worst Texas drought in more than a century has left cotton-crop conditions that rival the Dust Bowl of the early 1930s, forcing farmers to abandon more fields than ever before.
Most growers will at least break even  [emphasis added] this year from insurance claims, with the reimbursement rate on policies higher than the price of New York cotton futures, according to a Bloomberg News survey of seven analysts, brokers and farmers.

 I think there's a problem here, either with crop insurance or perhaps with the writing.  If you look lower in the story, the break even bit may reflect one grower's expectations.  But it appears the insurance covers $1.23 a pound, which doesn't seem right, though I'm stuck in the days of a target price just above $.70.

History Makes a Difference: Bees and Levy Flight

Once, long ago, I was good at math.  No longer.  But I still have a soft spot for math-like writing.  Here's a Technology Review post on the math describing how bees search for nectar sources.  It's something called "Levy Flight", described as:

The most effective way to comb an area is to search it at random using jumps that vary in length according to a power law.

But new research has shown while that works for cases where you just have nectar sources spread out in space, if you introduce a third variable, a predator, the pattern is changed as the bees adjust their flight patterns to avoid the predator.  In short: history makes a difference.

Another Cheerleader for President?

Much discussion about the probability Texas Gov. Rick Perry will run for President.  Some thought the country isn't ready for another conservative Texas Republican as President.  That may be, but I know I'm not ready for another Texas cheerleader as President--from a Conor Friedersdorf post on the press descriptions of him:

"Perry is fresh-faced and chipper, just as you would expect a former Texas A&M yell leader [emphasis added] to be. 'He marches up to the lowliest employee, greets them by name, shakes their hand, and looks them in the eye,' says one staffer. 'He's as friendly as a puppy.' ~ Dana Rubin, Texas Monthly 

How'd That Work Out for the Rural Areas: FDR in 1933

Matt Yglesias quotes from FDR's inaugural, in the context of whether Obama is a good leader, but I'm interested in this one sentence:

Hand in hand with this we must frankly recognize the overbalance of population in our industrial centers and, by engaging on a national scale in a redistribution, endeavor to provide a better use of the land for those best fitted for the land.

That belief has a long history, and it carries on today, when some in the food movement argue for revivifying rural areas. The New Deal tried, they even had a Resettlement Administration, bits and pieces of which ended up in the Farmers Home Administration and now FSA, but it didn't work as they thought it should.  I think the bottom line is: most rural areas (measured in area) in which farming is the main occupation will continue to lose population for the foreseeable future. I note today there's a Mid-Atlantic exposition/conference on precision agriculture coming up; it's the first one.  If they can do precision agriculture in this area, that further cuts the need for labor and increases the need for capital, all of which means a further expansion of the size of farms and a further cut in farm population.

Those Good Old Days in Herndon Education

These days Herndon is one of the centers of the Internet.  (I believe it's true that as a byproduct of how the Internet evolved, some of the main switches, or whatever the right term is, are located within or nearby Herndon. 

But a mere 55 years ago Herndon was still agricultural, as shown in this memory of the school system:

“If you stood at the back of the original school building, there were four buildings, with a walkway leading to the original gym at the end," McGlincy Reed said. "The home economics building was a free standing cottage including kitchen, living, and dining rooms and, I think, two bedrooms. The cannery was on the far right, but before you got to those buildings, the [home economics] house was on the left and the shop/agricultural department was on the right. The whole site was like a quad arrangement. The cannery was on the grounds and used by anyone in the community.”

Obesity, Food Deserts, and a Paradox

Robin Hanson had a post citing research that there was no relationship between poverty and obesity.  That surprised me.

This CDC report shows a strong relationship between ethnicity and obesity--blacks and Hispanics tend to be more obese than whites.

Between 1988-1994 and 2007-2008 the prevalence of obesity increased (Figure 2):

• From 11.6% to 16.7% among non-Hispanic white boys.

• From 10.7% to 19.8% among non-Hispanic black boys.

• From 14.1% to 26.8% among Mexican-American boys.

And a search for "obesity, income" on CDC comes up with this:

• Among men, obesity prevalence is generally similar at all income levels, however, among non-Hispanic black and Mexican-American men those with higher income are more likely to be obese than those with low income.
• Higher income women are less likely to be obese than low income women, but most obese women are not low income.
• There is no significant trend between obesity and education among men. Among women, however, there is a trend, those with college degrees are less likely to be obese compared with less educated women.
• Between 1988–1994 and 2007–2008 the prevalence of obesity increased in adults at all income and education levels.

 and

Among men, obesity prevalence is generally similar at all income levels, with a tendency to be slightly higher at higher income levels.

The Paradox Identified

So Hanson looks to be partially right, at least with regards to the U.S. And I didn't get into the research to know how well it distinguishes among the variables: ethnicity versus income.  But what's interesting to me is the difference between men and women, particularly for blacks and Mexican-Americans.  Why are rich black men thin and poor black women fat (using oversimple language to make the point) and vice versa? That doesn't seem to me to support the concept of "food deserts". Indeed, it seems to confound any general theory:  genetics, income, environment, etc.

The Best Reform: Firing Low Performers

That's the message STeve Kelman got from SESers.

I'd draw a parallel between evaluating and firing teachers and evaluating and firing other bureaucrats.  Teachers can, we assume, be evaluated based on whether their students consistently each year improve. For some bureaucrats we may be able to find similar measures of performance, but for most it's going to be difficult.  For both teachers and bureaucrats you have a supervisor whose judgment is going to be invoked in the evaluation and the firing. Unfortunately, I think it's true it's harder to evaluate supervisors than it is their employees. 

On a personal note, thinking back over my career I'm not at all sure how I'd evaluate myself as a supervisor: some years and with some employees I was pretty good, with some employees and other years I was poor.  Rather reminds me of the director's commentary on "The Hunt for Red October" we watched last night.  The director kept saying he wasn't sure whether what he had tried to do came off well.

So, bottom line: while I can agree with the message Mr. Kelman takes away, it's wise to be cautious: a bad supervisor can do a lot of damage.

Does Anyone Follow Track? Read Long Jump

This is a great piece on long jumps and Carl Lewis. Hat tip to the Browser.  I remember Ralph Boston's salad days, if I recall that was just after the breaking of a bunch of different records which seemed unbreakable: 4 minute mile, 7 foot high jump, 16 foot high jump, 60 foot shot put, 10 sec 100 yard dash.  In those days track was a major sport, a major amateur sport, along with tennis. College football and basketball were more prominent than their pro counterparts, boxing was big (the Friday night fights with Sugar Ray Robinson, Carmen Basilio, the ageless Archie Moore).  Think I'll dream on the glories of yesteryear and skip blogging this weekend.

Big Dairies Means Better Milk?

That's the conclusion of a study of Wisconsin dairies, as summarized at extension.org.

Robots in the Car and the Tractor

Google has a self-driving car project, and now Kinze has a self-driving tractor project.  I guess that's how the 5,000 to 15,000 acre farmer is going to be able to keep expanding.