Robots in the Car and the Tractor

Google has a self-driving car project, and now Kinze has a self-driving tractor project.  I guess that's how the 5,000 to 15,000 acre farmer is going to be able to keep expanding. 

5,000 to 15,000 Acres

From Farm Policy, quoting DTN piece:

"Farm Credit lenders in 15 states have received words of caution about the potential for excess risks shouldered by their biggest grain customers. ‘The 5,000 to 15,000-acre commercial grain farmer is emerging as a major customer from Arkansas to North Dakota,’ Ross Anderson, senior vice president and chief credit officer for St. Paul-based AgriBank told DTN in an interview last week."

The idea is these operations are mostly rented land, so they've got a lot of leverage and are therefore assuming a lot of risk.

Risk on the farm interests me.  There have been lots of innovations over the years to reduce risk: vertical integration in poultry, eggs, and pigs; futures; contract farming for popcorn and seed corn, crop insurance, disaster payment programs, production adjustment and marketing quota programs, etc.  But farming evolves; the less risk in one area perhaps the more risk in another.  The safest type of farming is probably still the well-diversified small farm, not having all your eggs in one basket.  But over the last century the US moved away from those farms, a trend which is continuing in this century, as witness the results of planting flexibility.

MIDAS Takes a Hit?

In the Farm Policy interview with Rep. Peterson, he says, with regards to the Deficit Control Act process:

"It could impact the effort that we’ve got underway to modernize the computer
system, all of which, in a way, affects producers"

On Hypocrisy and Bureaucrats

Most days I walk over to the community garden where we have a plot.  Watering and weeding are constant chores, chores not often mentioned in the glowing articles on organic and local food.  But that's a different post.

To reach the garden I have to cross Reston Parkway, which is 4 lanes plus turn lanes and is usually still busy from the tail end of rush hour when I'm walking.  So there's a red light for traffic heading north on Reston as I cross.  Some people, I suspect, hang a right from Reston onto Glade (the cross street) so they can try to barrel north on Colts Neck, a less-traveled 4 lane road, bypassing congestion on Reston.

When I'm crossing then, you will be amazed to know there's a small but finite danger that drivers making their right turn on red will not come to a stop.  Further, they may not be looking for a pedestrian walking in front of the stopped cars in the travel lanes because they're intent on making their turn and getting to work, like the good bureaucrats they are. 

Now a person close to me has the attitude with regards to cars that: "they have brakes, don't they."  Unfortunately I've become infected by that attitude, so I tend to walk across the intersection with my eyes fixed on the opposite corner and not overtly looking for someone making a right turn.  I figure they should be obeying the law, right?  They're bureaucrats after all and need to set a good example.

This morning I followed my usual pattern, only to be almost run down by an SUV which made the right turn at about 20 mph, not stopping at all.

Mad? Of course I was mad.  I was crossing with the light and the driver was absolutely in the wrong.  What was even more aggravating is I don't think he ever saw me, after all I was at least 4 feet from his lane.

I fumed as I walked on to the garden. I had the delicious feeling of self-righteousness to savor.  Then I remembered that the walk sign clearly said "Don't walk", so I was in the wrong too.  (I don't usually hit the button to get a "Walk" signal; I walk rapidly and it wastes people's time.)

All in all, a remember of the mote and the beam

Our Shrinking Federal Government

From prior years, by 2021 our government will have shrunk by about 31 percent.  That's CBO's estimate of how much, as a percentage of GDP, the expenditures for discretionary and mandatory programs, except Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, will be.  (Shrinking from 6.7 percent of GDP to 4.6.)

The Results of Planting Flexibility

FarmDocDaily has an interesting graph comparing the 2007-2011 average planted acreages of program crops with their acreage base acreages (which would be based on historical plantings from way back). In sum, soybeans and corn have increased their planted acreage while cotton, wheat, rice, and  barley have decreased.  Back in the 1920's one farm might have grown most of the program crops, but over the years they became more specialized.  Now because corn and soybeans feed animals, and rich people, including rich Chinese, like to eat meat the whole farm economy is focused on those two crops. 

Sometimes Conservatives Are Right

They often complain about bureaucratic rules.  This requirement that job openings be published in print strikes me as idiotic.

Debt Ceiling Deal

For those who may not have followed it, the deal doesn't force any cuts in the current direct payment program (unlike Sen. Reid's version of last week) nor does it hit federal employees or retirees right now.

A Food Desert in Amsterdam?

This NYTimes piece on Amsterdam praises its accommodation of bicycles:

This in turn relates to lots of other things — such as bread. How? Cyclists can’t carry six bags of groceries; bulk buying is almost nonexistent. Instead of shopping for a week, people stop at the market daily. So the need for processed loaves that will last for days is gone. A result: good bread.

These bits I found by Google says Amsterdam "supermarkets" tend to the small and midsized, no "hypermarkets".  Here's a link to a photo I found of the fruits and vegetables at one supermarket.

Here's some information on trends in fruits and vegetables in the Netherlands: (The source says in 2005 the Netherlands consumed 94 kilograms of fresh fruits and 74 of fresh vegetables, which is about 207 and 163 pounds respectively.  According to this ERS source in 2000 the US consumed 127 pounds of fresh fruit and 201 pounds  of fresh vegetables.)

Trade and Consumer’s Preference

Health concern receives more attention. Organic market is growing Nutritional value and health benefits of 

fruits and vegetables have been well recognized. Consumers are open to new items. Retailers have started offering seasonings and ready-meal packages also.

Convenience trends: people wish to save time. Fruits and vegetables are sold pre-cut, and prepared and packed complete meals and take away are also popular. Fruits are sold from non-food stores like gas station also.

Largest consumers are elderly people. Single household or couples with double income spend most on fruits particularly on exotics. They buy from supermarkets but elderly people and senior citizens buy from retail stores. Elderly and affluent seniors also visit specialized retailers. Bananas are liked by younger generations. Elderly people buy mostly citrus, oranges, grapefruits, and lemons.

Growing interest in local and authentic products- with increasing awareness of the negative impacts on environment on imports (HBD).

Other important features of the market:

I. Market share and importance of supermarket is likely to continue with the increased popularity of one-stop-shopping.

II. Green grocers offers high quality assorted fresh fruits.

III. Number of specialty shops like Indonesian food, Halal food, etc. is growing.

IV. More and more retailers are selling branded fruits such as Tasty Tom tomatoes.

V. Hard discounters and multiple stores are enlarging their offer of organic crops.

Robin Hanson on Education

The maverick economist writes:

Schools are designed to, and do, stifle student imaginations. So why would we care much if teacher imaginations get stifled in the process? Do we care if prison guard imaginations gets stifled?

Sometimes I think he's the avatar of a 16-year old genius who's still in high school.