Wednesday, July 28, 2010

What David Brooks Fails to Mention

In Tuesday's Times, David Brooks imagines he's a Democrat again, and from that position gives advice to Obama, who should be.
focused on the long term? He could explain that we’re facing deep fundamental problems: an aging population, overleveraged consumers, exploding government debt, state and local bankruptcies, declining human capital, widening inequality, a pattern of jobless recoveries, deteriorating trade imbalances and so on.
These long-term problems, Obama could say, won’t be solved either with centralized government or free market laissez-faire. Just as government laid railroads and built land grant colleges in the 19th century to foster deep growth, the government today should be doing the modern equivalents.
What Brooks doesn't mention is the sort of stuff in this OMB Watch post, because, as it says:
The administration gets little credit for these achievements, which are often wonky in nature and easily overshadowed by the hyper-partisan atmosphere of Washington.

The Missing Data for Education: Teacher Data

David Leonhardt in the NY Times reports on a study from Tennessee of kindergarten, under a headline: The Case for $320,000 Kindergarten Teachers.
Students who had learned much more in kindergarten were more likely to go to college than students with otherwise similar backgrounds. Students who learned more were also less likely to become single parents. As adults, they were more likely to be saving for retirement. Perhaps most striking, they were earning more.
These results are despite the fact that during most of their school years, the effect of kindergarten doesn't show up in test scores.  I'm sure this is going to attract a lot of attention, and it should.  See Mankiw and Althouse.

Earlier this year I saw a mention of a similar result where early intervention didn't have lasting impact on test scores in school, but seemed to lead to better life results (less joblessness and crime, higher salaries).  Intended to blog it, but it slipped through.

What I'd really like to know is data on the teachers of the best classes back in 1980's: who were they, what were their backgrounds, were they identified as good teachers by their principal and the local community, and, most importantly, what has happened to them in the intervening 20+ years?  Did they find teaching kindergarteners a satisfying career, or did they move on?

Geezers and the Kindle

Interesting discussion here of the fact Amazon is temporarily out of the Kindle, now they've dropped the price to $189. 

Having helped an older relative with her Kindle, but not having one myself, I wonder about this factor.  I assume the elderly, like me, are slower than the rest of the world to adopt fancy cellphones and stuff like the IPad or the Kindle. But simply looking at me, I'm more likely to spring for a Kindle than an IPhone or IPad.  I don't know if that's broadly true.  My logic is that the multipurpose jobbie is a bit overwhelming in its possibilities.  I could cope with learning the Kindle, but not all the stuff that a smart phone or tablet can handle. 

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Sherrod as Faceless Bureaucrat

One puzzle about the Sherrod episode is why, why was it so explosive, so radioactive?  Why did the administration and NAACP react so quickly?  Race is obviously part of the answer, but I'd suggest bureaucracy, specifically "faceless bureaucrats", is also part of the answer. [ed--gee that's a surprise.]

As I see it now, this is my best guess at what actually was happening in 1986 and then what happened last week.

What's the context?  The NYTimes has an article published Sept. 10, 1986, which provides some background. Essentially the Farmer's Home Administration (FmHA) of USDA had made lots of loans in the 1970's which, in the hard times for agriculture in the 1980's, had turned sour. Meanwhile the Reagan administration, not known for its enthusiasm about government programs, had tried to cut back on FmHA's programs.  And GAO and the press had found a lot of instances of abuse of the programs. And finally 1986 was the first time there was an automatic cut in federal programs under Gramm-Rudman. All this meant bad times for farmers. Although FmHA was trying to collect delinquent loans, as the Times article says, "The agency has been sued 55 times since 1981 by farmers saying its loan-collecting and foreclosure practices were unconstitutional. The agency lost 37 times...." My suspicion from Sherrod's statement is that the Federation had participated in one or more of the lawsuits and, perhaps, had obtained an injunction against FmHA's pressing its foreclosure actions.

To complicate the situation even more,  in 1986 Georgia and the Southeast were suffering a historic drought as described in this Times article. "In Georgia, Agriculture Commissioner Tommy Irvin is predicting, ''We may lose up to 5,000 farmers over the cycle of the next 12 months.'' That would be 10 percent of the state's index of 50,000 farmers and ranchers, ''and of that 50,000, probably 25,000 are in financial trouble,'' he said."  

From what we are told, in 1986 Sherrod was working for the Federation of Southern Cooperatives, Land Assistance Fund,  presumably as a counselor of some kind. Don't know how long she's worked there--the Federation seems to have originated in the late 60's.  (In 1980 there was a Times article about the Emergency Land Fund and its efforts to preserve black land ownership. The Fund  merged with the Federation in 1985.)

Sherrod was about 38.  In comes Mr. Spooner, who is her first white client.  She assumes that he's not here of his own volition; he's not a walk-in customer like other customers (I'm assuming black farmers would often come to her first); he's been sent by USDA or GA Department of Agriculture.  (I'd assume having him as a client means she becomes rather tense, more tense than usual.  That would be my reaction, but maybe that's wrong, because she may be an extrovert people-person.)  She's definitely on guard.

What's Spooner feeling? Sherrod says he eventually ended up in Chapter 11 bankruptcy so I'll assume he probably had FmHA loan(s) and was in trouble. We don't know why he tried the Federation--Sherrod's assumption that USDA had sent him might be correct. If FmHA was trying to foreclose, it might be a conflict of interest for them to advise Spooner on the best way to fight it.  Referring him to a third party, like the Federation, would make sense.

Spooner is about 20 years older than Sherrod, so he's born in the early 1920's, in south Georgia when the KKK is riding high.  We don't know what his opinions and feelings were in 1986; maybe he had evolved faster than other Georgians (who had elected Lester Maddox of pick-axe handle fame, then Jimmy Carter of the famous grain in earlier decades). In the interests of telling the story it's probably fair to say he's not happy about turning to a radical organization, which would have been the reputation of the [coop] and one which caters to blacks, but he needs to save his farm.

Again, we don't know if this is the first time Spooner is acting as the customer/client of a black, a situation where he is a supplicant.  Let's say it is; almost certainly he's never applied for help on such an important matter to a black woman.  So in addition to feeling trapped by his economic situation, he may well be feeling uptight from the situation--he's asking for help from a black woman. And it's a younger person

So, as Sherrod describes it, Spooner talks and talks.  To her he comes across as trying to be superior. Maybe that's true, maybe not; maybe he's compensating for his helplessness..  Maybe he's telling his story from day 1 and trying to show that his predicament isn't his fault; maybe he's just anxious about getting help.

Back to Sherrod now: She says she's trying to figure out how much help she'll give him.  There's an implication of games-playing here; he's trying to impress her, she's feeling her power.  If she's bad, she'll turn him away.  If she's good, she'll help him all she can.  Somewhere in between is where she comes down, at least in her telling; she sends him to a white lawyer. I'm not clear why that's not the optimum solution.  Sherrod isn't a lawyer and he's got legal problems, but maybe she thinks her advice would have been good.  Or maybe she knows the lawyer isn't much good, as he turns out to be, and maybe that fact gives her a little malicious pleasure. It's definitely a situation with a lot of emotional currents.  When the NAACP audience listens to it, William Saletan in his analysis of their reaction only allows for one interpretation, but to me there's enough going on that likely different people picked up on different elements. Most of all, I suspect they were, as we do, empathize with her mixed emotions.

Now what about Sherrod's narrative strikes someone so strongly that they make the excerpt, someone adds text giving wrong information to the front, it gets played, and NAACP and USDA over react to it?

The first and obvious answer is racial.  Breitbart's position now is that she's recounting an episode of discrimination and her audience is enjoying it. The idea is "man bites dog"--a black person has power and discriminates against a white.  And, given the misframed excerpt, the idea which Vilsack and the NAACP was reacting to, the [wrong] fact she was a USDA bureaucrat when she did this. But humans tend to enjoy reversals: we love to see the powerful take a pratfall, so I don't think the racial element, by itself, was enough to account for its power.

I think there's another story here, a story which is symbolized by the conversion of "faceless bureaucrat" into an epithet. In part it ties into American anxieties about the power of the faceless bureaucrat.  We don't like power; we tolerate powerful people if they don't rub our noses in it. But we're aware whenever we deal with a bureaucrat that they know the rules, we don't.  They have the power, we don't.  So the idea of a bureaucrat, like Sherrod, being arbitrary and capricious is frightening; it's particularly frightening if you represent people who usually sit across from the bureaucrat, like the NAACP, or if you manage a bureaucracy, like USDA, which has been called the last plantation.

So arbitrary bureaucracy is our bogeyman (a good old Scots term, apparently) which has a scare power all out of proportion to its reality. That's why the excerpt had its power. And because it was powerful, Vilsack and the NAACP reacted too fast. 

Fred Hoyle Is Laughing Now

When I was growing up there were a number of paperbacks, published I think by Ballantine, on science.  Isaac Asmov was one writer, Microbe Hunters was a title I remember, and Fred Hoyle was another writer.  I believe that's where I first heard about the "Big Bang" versus "Steady-State" theories of the universe--Fred was the leading proponent of Steady State.  Then the Big Bang won out and I thought certainty had been achieved, at least in that minor area of thought.  Then I saw this:

Big Bang Abandoned in New Model of the Universe

A new cosmology successfully explains the accelerating expansion of the universe without dark energy; but only if the universe has no beginning and no end.
I guess I'm doomed to die without knowing what sort of universe I really inhabit.

What Really Gets Commenters Going

I thought the Sherrod case was the prime example of what really got commenters going on blogs.  But I was wrong.  What really gets people stirred up is if a blogger asks how to beat a speeding ticket. 

Monday, July 26, 2010

A Little Remembered Fact? White Lynchings

Matthew Yglesias blows up an American Spectator piece on the lynching of Sherrod's father, but he includes a graph showing lynchings from 1882 on.  In the first 10 or so years, the graph seems to show more whites being lynched than blacks (caution: my memory is that statistics on lynchings were very hard to gather so need to be taken with a grain of salt).  Of course, in proportion to population, the rate for blacks was always higher, but white lynchings remind us just how violent a country we used to be.

On the Limits of Transparency

One of the problems with "transparency" is: who cares?  The data may be out there or available, but unless there's someone with enough interest in the submit to dig into it and make a story out of it, there's little impact.  Part of the solution can be auditors/IG's.  See this piece from the World Bank blog.

To cite one example, we did a big, RCT study on what reduces corruption in community programs. Whereas my entire team thought that increasing participation and transparency would be most effective, in actual fact increasing the frequency of locally publicized audits had far greater effects.

Saturday, July 24, 2010

Either I'm Blind or Opengovtracker Disses USDA

I don't see USDA listed on this site.

Dealing with People, Lawmakers Will Keep This Secret?

Here's a discussion of a guide to dealing with "distressed constituents", by which is meant, not constituents who have been impacted by a natural disaster, or the recession, but those, not to put it mildly, who are nuts. (My term, not theirs.)  Anyone who has dealt with the great American public knows they're out there.  H. L. Mencken thought much of the public was.  But it's not something any Congressperson is going to advertise: "hey, I've had my staff read this great guide so now we'll be able to deal with you better."