Deficit Commission Predictions

Obama's deficit commission has been holding hearings, as has the House Agriculture Committee on the 2012 farm bill. The deficit report is due after the fall elections.

I now take up my crystal ball.  I predict the commission will include in its recommendations an across-the-board cut on much discretionary spending.  My logic is: it is very difficult to end programs; usually there are good arguments, or at least reasonable ones, for the existence and the value of the program, particularly if you ignore the costs. So it's going to be very difficult for 14 of the 18 commissioners to agree on a hit list.  Politically it's much easier to impose a flat percentage cut.  That way everyone (at least everyone in the affected programs) shares the pain and the cuts seem more equitable.

For those with short memories, or short lives, there was much concern about deficits back in the Reagan administration; that was one reason Reagan ended up signing some tax raises. Back then Congress and the administration could reach agreement on an approach to cutting deficits; it was called the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Act.  In 1986 it kicked in and we ended cutting deficiency payments (and other payments) by something like 4.6 percent. 

So my prediction is history will repeat itself--the commission will propose a percentage cut like we had in 1986.

Why the US Is Losing Its Preeminence

The Chicken Little position is well stated in this NYTimes article on a Chinese woman teaching Chinese to teens in Lawton, OK.   Interesting contrasts in culture:

“They party, they drink, they date,” [the teacher] added. “In China, we study and study and study.”

Note: I'm not much bothered by the prospect.  The only thing I can be sure of is the contrast will be different in 30 years.

Mother's Day URL's

Steve Hendrix in the Post magazine interviews people his mother taught in a gifted class many years ago, and finds it was a big influence in their lives.

Roger Rosenblatt in "Making Toast" paints a picture of a mother, his daughter, now dead and the family she left behind. Emotional because underwritten.

The Answer to Some Mysteries?

According to this post passing on a study, the more intelligent and dependable a child, the more likely she is to live longer.   

No mention of whether it applies to both sexes, or whether the result only explains why females live longer than males.  Assuming this has cross-cultural validity, it might answer why the average IQ rises each generation.

Funniest Sentence Today

Kevin Drum in a post on Prof. Kagan's qualifications to be a Justice (the argument being she can persuade Justice Kennedy):

Anyway, Diane Wood has six kids and plays the oboe. I'll bet she can convince just about anybody of just about anything.

Economists Don't Know What They're Talking About--DeLong

Brad proves it by this statement (from his intro to an upcoming course):

Doesn't that mean that we [the students] are guinea pigs--experimental animals? A: Yes, but the life of an experimental animal can be a very interesting and fulfilling one.

The Weak US Government

One of my hobbyhorses--how really weak the Federal government is. I get support, albeit unknowingly, from a surprising source--a libertarian. Ilya Somin at Volokh Conspiracy writes:

My parents and I were green card holders from 1979 to 1986. As far as I know, they rarely if ever carried proof of legal residency with them except when entering and leaving the country. I suspect that most other legal immigrants behave the same way. Why? Because the chance of running into a federal law enforcement officer in everyday life is infinitesmally [sic] small.

This is in the context of a discussion of the Arizona immigration law.  Somin is worried because people have or could have dealings with local and state law enforcement officials almost every day.  (In fact, I've had very few interactions with such officials in the course of a rather long life.  Maybe I drive slower than Somin.) 

McCain Flip Flops on Farm Programs

From Chris Clayton:

One senator to spotlight in the letter is Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., who has opposed farm programs his entire career, but in the past two weeks has signed onto two letters defending traditional farm programs.

Brooks and Ricks on the US Army

David Brooks is laudatory today.  He believes the Army has been converted to a counterinsurgency doctrine through the leadership of Gen. Petraeus.  Tom Ricks likes the Brooks narrative,

I must say I'm more skeptical.  There was an earlier post on The Best Defense in which a guest poster ended by saying:

 I would argue, though, that the truth is closer to this being a business as usual concept regarding something perceived as a fad: General Petraeus and COIN are the flavor of the month now, but once Iraq winds down for us and explodes for the Iraqis after our drawdown and Afghanistan drags on and gets more of a mess, will it still be an appetizing taste? Past history shows that it won't be. That leaves the real question as: how much can GEN Petraeus' influence change the dynamic?

There are a  bunch of comments on that post, most of which I've not read.  Personally I'm a bit cynical about the Army, the whole military actually. Supposedly after Vietnam they changed their culture. But either they forgot the change, and the lessons of the war, or the change was oversold.  Or maybe the sheer inertia of the Army is underestimated.  After all, you've got people who've invested their lives in armor or artillery who have every incentive to look for flaws in a COIN Army.  They're backed up by the military-industrial-Congressional complex.  Drinking tea with tribal leaders may be effective, but it doesn't create jobs in a Congressional district.

So my bottom line is Mr. Brooks may be over impressed. Petraeus may have done everything right, and everything it could, but it doesn't mean COIN is embedded in the Army's DNA yet.

No One Trusts Their Bureaucrats

This Politico article argues that the publics in all industrial democracies have lost their trust in bureaucrats and hierarchical organizations. Why? Because people are richer and more educated.

I'm not sure of the argument, but it is a useful reminder that America is not as unique as we'd like to think.