Mathematical Illiteracy in the AP

From an article on this document from ERS:

50 percent more US children went hungry in 2007

By MICHAEL J. SNIFFEN – 3 days ago

Some 691,000 children went hungry in America sometime in 2007, while close to one in eight Americans struggled to feed themselves adequately even before this year's sharp economic downtown, the Agriculture Department reported Monday.

The department's annual report on food security showed that during 2007 the number of children who suffered a substantial disruption in the amount of food they typically eat was more than double the 430,000 in 2006 and the largest figure since 716,000 in 1998.

Note the headline is accurate, but the writer is not (i.e 691,000 is not double the 430,000). When you look at the ERS study, the 2005 figure for children was close to the 2007, making me suspicious of the accuracy of the 2006 figure. In general, the ERS study doesn't indicate dramatic changes in "food insecurity".

My Memory Isn't Too Bad

Despite the gloom and doom, I've had the feeling we've had comparable crashes before. Turns out to be true, though this one is faster. And granted the economic situation isn't reflected in this graph.

New Yorker and Food

The New Yorker magazine has its food issue this week. James Surowiecki, their economics correspondent, discusses food prices.

His thesis is that, over the last 20 years or so, agricultural production and marketing systems, particularly in developing countries, have been made more efficient, with fewer agricultural marketing boards, more production driven by the market and less by government subsidy, lower or no levels of government-owned grain reserves, etc. But, while the systems are more efficient, they are more fragile. He writes:

"The old emphasis on food security was undoubtedly costly, and often wasteful. But the redundancies it created also had tremendous value when things went wrong. And one sure thing about a system as complex as agriculture is that things will go wrong, often with devastating consequences."

It's an interesting contrast with Prof. Pollan's thesis which says that government subsidies have distorted production, and made corn cheap.

Farm Bill Blues in the EU Too

The greens were disturbed with the outcome of our 2008 farm bill process. Apparently similar forces are also at work in the EU--apparently the resolution of the EU CAP (common agricultural policy) "health check" debate is for very minor moves of money from income support/direct payments to conservation and minor reductions of the biggest payments.

An Economist Bureaucrat Is Still a Bureaucrat

Brad DeLong has a recommendation for Austan Goolsbee, which reflects his experience in the bureaucracy:

As a non-negotiable condition of his taking the job, Austan should insist on at least his two deputies—the other two members of the CEA—having offices inside the Eisenhower EOB. Six eyes can cover three times as much ground as two, and a surprisingly large share of the business of government is done by wandering around the Eisenhower building and the White House talking to people in hallways (or just hanging out in the Starbucks at 17th and Pennsylvania and talking to whoever comes by

I agree. Things may have changed a little bit with modern technology, but nothing fully replaces hanging out.

Organic and CRP Land

A newspaper account of a meeting on organic agriculture in Minnesota. What strikes me is the speaker's emphasis on the CRP-organic linkage. (Because CRP land has been out of production for years, it probably meets the 3-year requirement (no chemicals) to qualify as organic. )

So the greens might say, if you're getting out of CRP, go organic. But some greens must be a bit ambivalent about the idea, as tilling CRP land would cause a larger carbon footprint. Life is so complicated, it's unfair.

The Demise of Literacy

If this quote is right, not only is the author of a biography of V.S.Naipaul deficient, so too is the NY Time book reviewer and its copy editors:

Even the cameos in Mr. French’s biography are crazily vivid. Here is his hole-in-one description of the editor Francis Wyndham: “Popular, gentle, solitary and eccentric, Wyndham lived with his mother, wore heavy glasses and high-waisted trousers, gave off random murmurs and squeaks and moved with an amphibian gate.”[emphasis added]

My point--"gate" should be "gait" (a manner of walking).

Automated Analysis Isn't Reliable

Via Greg Mankiw, this site tries to analyze a blog in terms of the Myers-Briggs categories.

This blog comes out as ISTJ--Duty Fulfiller:

"The responsible and hardworking type. They are especially attuned to the details of life and are careful about getting the facts right. Conservative by nature they are often reluctant to take any risks whatsoever.

The Duty Fulfillers are happy to be let alone and to be able to work int heir[sic] own pace. They know what they have to do and how to do it."

Unfortunately, my other blog, Harshaw Family, comes out a ESFP--Performer:

"The entertaining and friendly type. They are especially attuned to pleasure and beauty and like to fill their surroundings with soft fabrics, bright colors and sweet smells. They live in the present moment and don´t like to plan ahead - they are always in risk of exhausting themselves.

The[sic] enjoy work that makes them able to help other people in a concrete and visible way. They tend to avoid conflicts and rarely initiate confrontation - qualities that can make it hard for them in management positions"

Not to be too critical--I'm definitely aware of writing differently depending on the blog. And each analysis picks up aspects--I'm averse to confrontation and I try to be careful to get my facts right.

For Those Who Didn't Go to Harvard

Some news to please one's schadenfreude sensor--Harvard's taking big big losses on its endowment.

Burrowing

Understanding Government expresses concern at the Post's report of "burrowing" (i.e., political appointees being converted to career status) in the Interior Department. Personally, it's what one would expect who has been around for several administrations.