AMT, Turbotax, and Enablers and Iraq's Banking System

Ann Althouse posts on the Alternative Minimum Tax, responding to a suggestion by Kaus that the hassle of doing two calculations is a reason for opposition to it. She and Glenn Reynolds point out that Turbotax software eliminates the problem. So should conservative oppose Turbotax?

It's a good question, but first let me address the AMT. I like the damn thing, liked it back when it was instituted amidst much publicity about fat cats (we had a few back then (i.e., 1969)) and still like it. Problem is, it wasn't indexed when imposed initially. These days it tends to hit the upper middle class in high tax states like Wisconsin. Someone with a $500K house might get hit with a $12.5K tax bill, then be subject to AMT. While I don't have much sympathy for someone in that position, I'd agree they shouldn't get hit by AMT.

Now for the question: is Turbotax a weapon of the evil, tax-sucking vampires known as liberals? Obviously no. It would be like saying that the lack of a banking system in Iraq, which undermines the Iraqi Army, is a weapon of the Iraqi opposition. Bureaucratic systems and software systems are morally and politically neutral, even though they may accidentally help or hurt the good. After all, Turbotax makes our tax system more efficient, permitting lower rates than would otherwise be necessary.

Big Men, Free Throws, and Bureaucrats

It's a law of nature--big men don't make free throws. Think Wilt Chamberlain, Shaquille O'Neal, and many others. But the NY Times has an article on the Mavericks' free throw coach.
He's the only such coach in the league. He coached Shawn Bradley, who achieved a 90% accuracy figure (though it turns out to have been only one year).

It's amazing that, given the highly competitive environment, no other team has followed suit. Indeed, the article claims that videotaping free throws is highly unusual. (Compare this to a recent article on Phil Mahre, holder of the American record for ski victories, who's making a limited comeback in his 40's. The article observed that now skiers have their runs videotaped and slow-mo analyzed for imperfections in their style, etc.) This seems to be a failure of the competitive free market. Economists, please study.

But the most interesting bit was this:

"Even when the player wants to learn, Boren must conquer another barrier.

He tells them: “When I look at you, I see two things — a brain and a bunch of muscles — and the good news is the brain is really clicking. But the bad news is your muscles have been taking a siesta. They like it the old way and they’re not paying attention to any of this stuff. So when we get down there, they’re going to resist.”

That's a good metaphor for bureaucratic reorganizations and mergers of organization--the brain may say one thing but the muscles do another. It's an especially attractive metaphor because I've found it true. For example, when I drive a usual routine I get locked into a routine so muscles take over. Which is fine, except on those occasions where I need to vary the routine, like deviate from the route to stop at a store.

Census Counts Praiseworthy Children?

According to the NYTimes the Census Bureau has determined that children's quality of life is on the rise. The press release is here.

What blew my mind, at least initially, was the idea that the government would ask how often parents praised children!

Now in my day [tell it, granddad] children weren't praised, at least not to their face. I can remember my parents bragging on me to others (like their siblings), but I don't remember daily praise at any time. I guess, despite evidence to the contrary, we may have advanced.

Federal Crop Insurance and The New Farm Bill

From the Washington Post, with a tip of the hat to George Buddy ,
comes a column by Cato people suggesting reform of the federal crop insurance program. I found this quote ironic:

"lawmakers have made several efforts to "reform" crop insurance. But each wave of legislative changes has moved the program further away from economic rationality and exacerbated its distortion of incentives and inefficiency."

It's ironic because the "reformers" have always operated under the flag of "free market competition". To recap, the New Deal set up the Federal Crop Insurance corporation, issuing government policies for damage to the big field crops. In a parallel universe there were several private companies (some associated with the Farm Bureau, etc.) issuing similar policies. In the 70's we had a standing program that made disaster payments. In 1980, Congress and the Administration decided to phase out the standing program in favor of the private companies, with Federal reinsurance. But each time Congress has said: "no more ad hoc
disaster programs, you have to have crop insurance, they've backed down. The result is a mish-mash of policies and programs that offends every rational bone in this bureaucrat's body. But the reality is the private insurance lobby packs too much clout to expect any big change in the future.

(A diversion--long ago, about a century ago as a matter of fact, the insurance industry (i.e., life, liability, etc.) dodged the bullet of federal regulation because they had too much clout. Insurance agents and adjusters are precisely the sort of people who can make for good political workers.

Roberta Wohlstetter, Separating Wheat from Chaff

Roberta Wohlstetter died. I ran into her work back in 60's. I had done a paper on Pearl Harbor early in my collegiate career which introduced me to the conspiracy theorists and reasonable historians who wrote on it. (Some were the same--like Charles Beard.) The conspiracy theory went that since we had broken the Japanese codes FDR knew when and where they were going to strike and was therefore responsible for the US losses. Further, FDR had maneuvered the Japanese, most notably by embargoing oil, into striking us so he could take the nation into war against Germany. (Some attached a faint odor of anti-Semitism to the final step.) The theory was a carry-over from the American-firsters. People who hated Roosevelt loved the theory, so the right-wing nuts of the day were prominent.)

Wohlstetter wrote a great book, that won the Bancroft Prize, on Pearl Harbor. Her argument basically was, yes, FDR and Washington had lots of information that predicted Pearl Harbor, but in the day-to-day run of affairs, there was also lots of information predicting an attack on Singapore, or Indochina or the Dutch Indies or.... She pointed out the problem of identifying what's significant from amid the mass of detail that a decision-maker receives each day. It's a caution for those who over-simplify.

Ironically she was the wife of Alfred, who was an early mentor to the neo-cons, who have set a new standard for over-simplification.

Farmers, Free Market, and the Future

This Agweb article tied to the American Farm Bureau Federation's annual meeting shows the complexities of farming. Corn farmers in particular are looking to a bright future based on ethanol production expanding. But livestock producers, particularly pork, are facing red ink. Why--because hogs eat corn. The "iron triangle" is at work, as Keith Collins, USDA's chief economist, talks to the meeting and representatives of the universities and other farm organizations are heard from.

Farm groups are concerned with international trade, the Doha round of trade negotiations, immigration, the new farm bill, air quality, and animal protection (against the last two :-) ).

This year has seen a run-up in corn prices. Indeed, I saw one summary that said that corn was the "commodity" with the largest percent increase in 2006. Don't know what price measure was used. Farmers should be used to this--there was a big price increase in 1996, I believe. And then it went to hell again.

Meanwhile, this morning's news has John Deere's stock prices, up 40+% last year, looking good for the future (again based on rosy prices for corn, etc.). But oil prices are falling again, reaching new lows. That means less impetus for ethanol, lower prices for corn, higher profits for pork, and different pressures on politicians doing the new farm bill.

Being a cynic, I think I'll plan to sell John Deere short.

What Price Security?

Apparently a PricewaterhouseCoopers security audit of my old agency found a major vulnerability in its distributed computer system. They have IBM AD-400 minicomputers in about 2300 sites with local administration. I've seen a notice where they're tightening up on procedures for granting access to the system. I've also seen a request for information (which I may discuss in a separate post) considering the possible moving of the computers from county offices to more centralized locations.

I can understand what happened. The accounting firm probably sent out some people who found that anyone could break into a county office (mostly located in small towns of 2-10,000), break into the system and make off with personal data, or hack into the overall system. It could happen. And, as a public agency, you can't really say that the chances are very, very small of this happening, there are things we can do to reduce the risk and mitigate the damage from any such break-in, so we should devote our attention to those areas. Remember that people have lost their jobs over the handling/mishandling of data on laptop computers even though no damage resulted. And know that Congress would pillory anyone who appeared before them after a break-in.

It's the game we bureaucrats have to play--hire an outside firm and then go through hoops just to cover our ass.

What Do Bureaucrats Do?

Rob Carrigan, who's involved with newpapers and technology, believes bureaucrats are an enemy of "process change", as he says:

"The Bureaucrat - This character not only lives “by” the rules, but “for” the rules. “We must follow this rule no matter what,” according to this enemy of progress. In process change, many of the old rules should be reconsidered and some probably be thrown out the window. The bureaucrat, however, will fight tooth and nail to preserve the way things are because “it is the rule."

Bureaucrats occur at different levels in an organization. The "operatives", to use James Q. Wilson's term for them (the clerk at the DMV window), wrap themselves in the "rules" as protection against the demands of their customers. They don't have the authority to change the rules. To get them to change, you need to offer a process that is better in their eyes (hopefully in the eyes of their customers) and training that gives them confidence in the new rules and new process.

At the upper levels you find the bureaucrats who do have the power to change the rules. But to change you have to make a rational case for the superiority of the new process and overcome the natural conservatism of those who are comfortable with the current process and who, in many cases, have invested sweat and tears in developing and perfecting the current process. And you need to recognize that spin doctors in the past have pushed various organizational nostrums and improvements on the incumbent bureaucrats with benefits that have evaporated into thin air. Finally, and the straw breaker in my case, you need to recognize that process improvements that increase efficiency may and should cost jobs in the organization.

The Wisdom of A.J.

Another Post article in the "Black Men" series Sunday, this one on A.J.--a killer and drug dealer. Two things struck me:

One afternoon after a group counseling session, he and another seasoned offender, Kenneth Williams, got to talking. They had been eyeing each other and finally discovered that they had attended the District's Garnet-Patterson Middle School together. Reminiscing with Williams seemed to unlock some happiness stored inside of James. A smile replaced his scowl. "You remember Miss Brown? Miss Mack?" James proudly mentioned he had been in the gifted-and-talented program as a seventh-grader, the last shining moment of his schooling.

That was the only expression in the story of affection--teachers do make a difference, if only in memory and in failing to make all the difference.

The other thing that struck me was his observation--in the context of the justice system, that his allegiances were relative. If he was in prison away from DC, then his homeboys were everyone from DC and that was his identification. If he were in DC jail, then his homeboys were from the neighborhood. But if he were in the neighborhood, he'd be fighting and killing his neighbors.

Cost of Living Index

Cost of one hour of attorney's time in Syracuse, NY = $150; in Falls Church, VA = $300.