Writing History for Governement, Ernest May and 9/11

Ernest May, an eminent historian, provides a look behind the scenes at the writing of the 9/11 report. Worth reading for anyone interested in 9/11. But as a bureaucrat I was struck by this quote, following a description of how Richard Clarke's Delenda plan made no impact on the bigshots:

"... we learned that many documents in SOLIC files never reached--or at least made no impression on--secretaries or deputy secretaries or other assistant secretaries of defense or senior military officers. Pentagon witnesses reminded us that they had had a lot of other matters on their minds, including military operations in Bosnia and Kosovo and the reshaping of forces to fit a post-Cold War world. "

Bureaucracies move paper. Unfortunately, you often need a bureaucracy to focus on an issue, but the paper storm rains on all alike. One of the first things a bureaucrat learns is to ignore paper generated outside her bureaucracy. Unless, of course, somehow it's going to be followed by a direction from on high to do something. That's one of the points of Jamie Gorelick's pressing the issue of the Y2K meetings that "shook the trees" (I think that's the term.) Such meetings can get people paying attention.

Another interesting bit was this:

"Writing the bulk of the report as straightforward narrative helped the commission achieve its surprising unanimity."

The narrative focused the commission on the facts and the chronology first. That's a lesson bloggers often ignore--you need to establish what the reality is before you go off.

Finally, the commission's work reaffirmed Richard Neustadt's observation about Presidential power. Clinton had little power over DOD, CIA, or FBI; they were all alienated. That's one reason to take many political scientists and economists with a large grain of salt when they write about bureaucracies. Personalities count a hell of a lot, especially at the margins, and 9/11 showed us the margins matter.

Why Are Whippersnappers Smarter Than Me?

The "Flynn effect" is the observation that people keep getting smarter--that is, each time IQ tests are redone and revalidated, people who score 100 on the new test score over 100 on the old. See this article in Wired. Apparently this is true over all industrialized countries. So the assumption is that "G" (general intelligence) is real but responds to the environment, regardless of data that seems to show that the correlation of IQ and heredity is about 60 percent. The question is what would account for it--the author pushes the hypothesis that cognitively demanding leisure activities push it. (More later.)

The article includes this bit:

"Four years ago, Flynn and William Dickens, a Brookings Institution economist, proposed another explanation [than intelligence depending on genes], one made apparent to them by the Flynn effect. Imagine 'somebody who starts out with a tiny little physiological advantage: He's just a bit taller than his friends,' Dickens says. 'That person is going to be just a bit better at basketball.' Thanks to this minor height advantage, he tends to enjoy pickup basketball games. He goes on to play in high school, where he gets excellent coaching and accumulates more experience and skill. 'And that sets up a cycle that could, say, take him all the way to the NBA,' Dickens says."

I'm struck by this because I firmly believe in vicious and virtuous cycles. Addiction is more common than we know and so is saintliness. Putting one's faith in cycles also cuts the Gordian knot for liberals: how do we reconcile the evidence for genetic correlation and our faith in equality? (There would be a side question of inheritable personality traits. When we disapprove we call them addictive personalities, when we approve we talk of persistence, stubbornness, etc.)

Back to the Flynn effect. As well as cycles I believe in the power of learning by example, learning by osmosis. Humans imitate, they imitate from birth. The fact is that the poorest among us still live a life of more choice and complexity, more stimulation, than my college educated great grandfather did in 1850. (I hasten to qualify--the comparison is not so stark as I state it. Our ancestors knew and dealt with many things we don't, but none of them appear on IQ tests.) So all our children are exposed to our dealings with the complex, human-formed life and absorb lessons. These get reflected in IQ test development and in performance on the test.

What's a Liberal Foreign Policy?

One of the principal findings of the Pew Research Report is:

"Foreign affairs assertiveness now almost completely distinguishes Republican-oriented voters from Democratic-oriented voters; this was a relatively minor factor in past typologies."

I've reservations on this issue. Back when Clinton was being reasonably assertive in foreign policy many, perhaps most, liberals supported him against the criticisms of the Republicans. Some liberals were quiet and some worried about a Vietnam/Somalia result. There were isolationist Republicans who didn't want any foreign adventures and "realist" Kissinger-types who didn't see any point in worrying about minor things like genocide and ethnic cleansing. Eagleburger thought the Balkans were (was?) a mess we should leave to Europe. Now most Republicans have moved to back their President and liberals have been pushed towards pacificism by Bush's actions.

I think the reality of the world is such that any future Democratic President is going to be more activist than the party currently is. I also think we should admit that our foreign policy differences are often more an issue of trust rather than principle. We Democrats would trust a Clinton where we don't trust a Bush. We should admit that almost all of us would support military action in some situations and believe that American principles can be powerful in some cases. I think our differences are really more at the margin--liberal hawks on Iraq thought the evil and the threat were certain enough and our military and economic power dominating enough that intervention was not terribly risky. Liberal doves thought the uncertainties of military too great, particularly after the inspectors got back in.

Looking back, the doves can argue the inspectors did their job. The issue for the future is whether there's some way for the world community to impose inspections for the long haul on a dictator.

Together or Apart? Keys to Success

The Washington Post does an article today on a school in Connecticut, similar to KIPP, very structured, very detailed, very successful in getting black students to achieve. It includes this quote from a school leader:

"'Any society, including a street gang, provides its members with status symbols. In many cases, what is getting valued is drugs, sex and money. We have to control what is valued in society. To get these kids to learn, we have to get them to believe that it is cool to do well in school.'

Amistad, Toll explains, is trying to turn the values of the street upside down. The school teaches students that it is 'cool' to do your homework, 'uncool' to be a bully."

It fits what Bill Cosby and William Raspberry have said--that elements of black culture decrease the chances for academic success. It also fits into a chain of logic that would explain why African-Americans achieve less than first and second generation immigrants from Africa or the Caribbean. The idea would be that immigrants isolate themselves from their former society so they are more focused on things like success and less restricted by commitments to other norms. A recent Pulitzer winner on slavery up to the great migration (1920) emphasizes the degree to which slaves were able to establish networks of relationships and used the networks after the Civil War in playing a role in political life in the South.

However, there's always the counter-example of the Jews, and other diaspora groups who do much better than the surrounding society. My best argument there, which isn't totally convincing, is that it's the nature of the culture. In other words, success can come two ways: by being part of a culture that focuses on and rewards success, or; by being somewhat separating from one's native culture so the focus is more on the individual.

I've no doubt I'll return to this subject.

WWCD--What Would Clinton Do?

Kevin Drum and Matt Yglesias say liberals have won most of the fight on separation of church and state and shouldn't push for total victory. Most of the comments on Kevin's post were fears about the slippery slope. I commented:

I agree with Kevin and Matt. Let the ACLU fit the issues, not the Democratic party. But the question is what does a Democratic politician say, i.e., WWCD (what would Clinton do)?

For abortion, Clinton used "safe, legal, and rare". That's a formula that provides some cover. I don't remember a comparable formula on religion issues. Anyone have any good ideas, better than: "I don't have a dog in that fight"?

Seems as if there ought to be a good formula. I'm posting this to remind myself to think about it.

What Are You Politically?

Thanks to David Greenberg guest blogging at danieldrezner.com for the link to the Pew Research Center and its report on how the electorate breaks down. It includes a typology test so you can see where you fit in the spectrum. (I came out a Liberal, 19 percent of us are.)

Fairfax County, Lake Woebegon, and Teen Sex

Fairfax County is Lake Woebegon Territory: All of our teenagers are abstinent, except those next door.

No scoring please, don't even try to steal second base.

Booklets Approved For Fairfax Sex-Ed: "Several parents and board members found fault with 'Birth Control Choices' because it said abstinence 'can range from no sexual touching at all to everything except intercourse.'

'It sent a mixed message,' said board member Brad Center (Lee). 'I think we need to be clear when dealing with kids that abstinence is abstinence.'"

Phasing Out Farm Subsidies, Is Samuelson Right?

Robert Samuelson mourns the dearth of budget-cutting zeal in Washington. He includes this statement:

"Plenty of programs could disappear without serious ill effects. Here are two of my regular favorites: farm subsidies and Amtrak. The CBO estimates that from 2006 to 2010 farm subsidies will cost $97 billion. If they were phased out, food would still be grown and the agricultural sector would still be viable. "

I'd challenge the "serious ill effects", because Mr. Samuelson ignores the lessons of history. It may well be true that the subsidies should be eliminated, but you cannot phase out subsidies of that size without serious effects. Economists believe that the subsidies get capitalized into land values. A farmer who's subsidized is able to pay a higher yearly rent for cropland, or to pay a higher price to buy cropland, thus pushing up values.
We should remember that we've had two experiments in phasing out subsidies: in the 1970's and with Freedom to Farm in 1996. Neither one suggests an easy road to eliminating subsidies.

In the 1970's after the Russian grain deal we were planting fence row to fence row, subsidies were almost zero, and land values soared. They reached a peak in the early 80's, then the bubble burst and values plunged. What happened then? (See this article in the Austin Daily Herald: land prices in one Texas county rose to $2112 per acre in 1981, then plunged to $531 in 1985. They've now risen to $2,821. )

The farmers who had inherited land and been cautious in expanding were okay. The farmers who had been bullish went bust. They were caught with mortgages based on high values for land that grew only low priced crops. As a result bankruptcies and suicides rose, rural banks went under, county tax rolls were decimated, people left farming, farms got bigger. The rural areas demanded relief. That stalwart of free enterprise and smaller government, Ronald Reagan, caved. Beginning in 1983 we had unprecedented (then) levels of subsidy.

Newt Gingrich and Pat Roberts pushed the 1996 Freedom to Farm law as a phaseout of the subsidy programs. It worked so well that subsidies over the last 10 years have dwarfed even Reagan's record.

Assuming that budget deficits and WTO rules result in drastic cuts of subsidies, when the current bubble in farmland bursts, the only reason we won't see a repeat of 1981-5 is that there are fewer farmers around to go bust.

Idea--Sorting Trash through RFID

In Reston we're supposed to sort trash three ways: newspapers, bottles and cans, and trash. But in Japan they sort into many more categories, as described in this NYTimes story: How Do Japanese Dump Trash? Let Us Count the Myriad Ways

"YOKOHAMA, Japan - When this city recently doubled the number of garbage categories to 10, it handed residents a 27-page booklet on how to sort their trash. Highlights included detailed instructions on 518 items."

What was interesting was the social pressure on nonconformers to sort. I suspect the Japanese language has no word for "busybody".

Recognizing that more recycling is a necessity, wanting not to impose government restrictions on citizens, and seeing that what we have here is a problem of communication, I suggest that as stores like Walmart implement RFID (the tags that broadcast a limited set of information over a very short distance, like those the Fairfax library is now using on books) the information should include data needed for recycling. (This assumes the RFID tag can be incorporated in the item so it's not removed when the buyer gets it home.) That way we only need to sort tagged items out into a separate bin. The trash people empty the collections from such bins onto a conveyor belt, the RFID reader reads the information and sorts the item accordingly.

Idea--Sentencing Guidelines or Community Standards

Societies and bureaucracies face the problem of uniformity versus diversity: given reality (yes, you have to accept the gift) strict rules don't work in all cases but basic fairness calls for similar cases to receive similar treatment. In the '80's Congress came up with sentencing guidelines for federal judges to ensure that someone convicted of a crime in Maine would receive roughly the same sentence as someone in Arizona. Last (?) term the Supreme Court struck down the guidelines as too restrictive, too much of an encroachment by the legislature into the judicial realm. Congress is now considering raising minimum sentences to achieve much the same result. Meanwhile, New York is essentially backing away from the Rockefeller minimum sentence law that was very hard on drug offenders.

I've an alternative to offer. As usual it's technocratic and incorporates principles of feedback and transparency. A parallel is found in from tax software, that compares your tax return to the national average. It is:

• have DOJ set up a central database/Internet application
• for each conviction, the federal judge enters data on the crime (the data would fit parameters of the sentencing guidelines, i.e., age of malefactor, prior convictions, gun involved, etc.)
• the judge enters his or her proposed sentence
• the software compares the sentence to all others given for the same crime and similar parameters.
• the judge can decide whether or not to adjust the sentence to fit more closely the national averages.
• the public could see the judge's record over time.
  

The theory is that this idea would permit judges to be free to use their discretion to fit oddball cases. Because judges and everyone else would have the feedback information, the tendence would be for sentences to cluster near the national average.