Long Tails, Black Swans, and 3-Day Tennis Matches

I've read a fair bit about the subject.  As a fast summary, the bell curve distribution of events is what we think of as "normal".  But in reality some distributions have a very long tail, the graph extends very far to the right.  This is what Mr. Talibi calls a "black swan" event.  And we've just had an instance of it in the 3-day tennis match at Wimbleton.  It's much, much longer than any previous match.  Don't know what the British bookies would have given as odds, before this week, because no one ever considered the possibility of such an event.  Just as no one really considered the possibility of a big eruption from a broken oil well in the Gulf.

Who Says We Can't Reduce the Deficit?

Even the agricultural community is accepting the idea that farm program amounts will be reduced in the next farm bill, according to Farm Policy's summary.  Of course, the food movement side of the industry will be pushing for more.


Further down Keith Collins is worried about trying to replace crop insurance with ACRE. And chairman Peterson is talking about replacing farm programs with crop insurance and ending payment limitations.

"Originalism" and the Israel Court

This Politico story on Kagan and the chief justice of Israel's Supreme Court mentions that Israel doesn't have a (written) constitution.  Nor, for that matter, does Britain.  I wonder how the "originalists" see the role of a judge in such a nation?

Why Farmers Want Farm Programs

Given the structure of markets, prices can vary very widely.  Few other industries see a 50 percent drop in income in 3 years, as did dairy in PA.

Connoisseur of Bureaucracy Must Read

Not side-splitting, but (some) bureaucrats have a sense of humor, as in this Federal Computer Weekly post about how many bureaucrats it takes to change a light bulb?

Slyly Aggressive Cowen

I like Tyler Cowen, but today's post is definitely slyly aggressive.  He begins by saying he's cut back on his reading while in Berlin, then goes on to list 6 heavy books. 

Sentence of June 23

"You don’t have to tell a bureaucrat twice to withhold information from a rival agency."  From Stewart Baker at Volokh conspiracy

Our Priorities Are Skewed

From the Restonian blog, commenting on the plans for Tysons Corners:

What's pathetic interesting is the new definition of "low-income housing."

The Tysons plan calls for 20 percent of housing to be devoted to those who make $51,350 to $123,240, or 50 to 120 percent of Fairfax's median household income of $102,700. In exchange, developers would be allowed to build 20 percent more units.

Lynne J. Strobel, a land-use lawyer with Walsh Colucci Lubeley Emrich & Walsh representing several Tysons Corner developers, urged supervisors to cut the lowest tier of workforce housing, for those earning 50 to 60 percent of the median household income in Fairfax. That would include annual incomes of $51,350 to $61,620. Starting salaries for teachers and police officers in Fairfax County range from $44,000 to $49,450.

Yeah, who wants those icky teachers or police officers as neighbors? All that chalk dust, handcuffs, etc. We're just happy that people who make the paltry sum of $123,240 are finally being designated as undesirables in need of special accommodations to afford their 800-square-foot "condominium" overlooking a shopping mall, the end.

Don't Like Chickens, Love Their Manure

That was my feeling growing up, at least as far as liking chickens goes.  Turns out one study shows their manure improves cotton yields over chemical fertilizer because it conditions soil.

In their study, Tewolde and colleagues figured the litter's value as a soil conditioner as an extra $17 per ton of litter. They calculated this by balancing the price tag of the nutrients in litter with its resulting higher yields, a reflection of its soil conditioning benefits.
They found that cotton yields peaked 12 percent higher with organic fertilizers, compared to peak yields with synthetic fertilizers. With all benefits factored in, they found that chicken litter has a value of about $78 a ton, compared to $61 a ton when figured by the traditional method.

This isn't organic farming, per se, but it's close.

HHS--Can They Make Their Deadline?

The dirty secret of government is that many legislated deadlines are not met.  Congress tends usually to ignore implementation once the bill is passed, so agencies really face few repercussions if they fail to meet the date.  This Politico article on HHS suggests the circumstances under which failure may not be an option: you're working on a highly visible,very controversial keystone of the program for a political party.  (If memory serves, Mark McClellan did a good job implementing the addition of Medicare Part D (drug coverage) back in the Bush days.)  We'll see how HHS does this time around.