No Hemp in Texas

The dream of legal hemp, of a new crop which can save the farm, is often just a dream.  So it seems in Texas.

I remember ostrichs, and llamas, and a handful of exotic plants which were permitted on "set-aside" acreage back in the 1970's.  All dreams which turned into nightmares for those who gambled on them. 

Boundary Setting

Who knew that we have government bureaucrats worrying about our actual borders, as opposed to migration across them?  FCW had a piece  on Trump's infamous Schedule F, which described the two agencies which had reported their plans to OPM.  One was OMB, as you'd expect.  The other:

Over at the U.S. International Boundary and Water Commission, only five of the agency’s 234 employees were slated to move into Schedule F. The agency submitted its plan on Jan. 19, 2021, and OPM was unable to review the proposal before Biden rescinded the executive order.

Officials at the agency, which applies boundary and water treaties between the U.S. and Mexico, said the expedited hiring and firing offered by Schedule F was appealing to senior leaders, particularly given the location of its offices in remote locations along the southern border.

Have Rules on Agencies Sharing Data Changed?

 FCW reports on a White House deal about improving the nation's health and food situation.  Reading between the lines it sounds as if some of the plans involve USDA and other agencies sharing data so they can improve participation in USDA food programs. 

That may be mistaken, but 30 years ago there was a law restricting our ability to share data.  I wonder whether that's changed or is now being ignored, or maybe privacy advocates no longer wish to oppose such deals? 

States Rights and Bureaucracy

 Reading Dr. Deborah Brix's "Silent Invasion", her memoir of her work in the pandemic. It's basically chronological, and I'm just about 2 weeks in.

She is trying to maneuver among the various camps in the Trump administration:

• economics interests such as Sec. Mnuchin and Larry Kudlow, worried about economic impacts.
• politicos like Joe Grogan worried about political impacts.
• CDC scientists worried about science and being right.
• HHS bureaucrats who worry about implementation.
• Poli-scis, like Bob Redfield who's head of CDC and Tony Fauci, who's reluctant to get beyond the data.

Based on her experience in Pepfar--fighting HIV in Africa, she believes in the importance of data and worries about asymptomatic spread of virus.  She's also concerned about being a woman in a male world and an outsider/newcomer to the administration's effort.

Most of all she's concerned about maneuvering the players towards what she sees as important. 

A big hurdle is the lack of timely detailed data.  She explains that CDC did not require data from the states; indeed they were afraid of antagonizing state officials and had the history of coaxing them to cooperate.  I see this as fitting into a pet idea of mine--the fact that few federal government bureaucracies directly deal with citizens--FSA being one of the few. 

The Future of the Chinese Military

 Putting together this Powerline post, which includes a graph projecting China's population to 2100, which shows it crashing.  Meanwhile Mr. Kilcullen in his book notes the "little emperor" syndrome, with parents and grandpartents focusing attention on their one child/grandchild. He argues that it will make China's leaders very reluctant to incur casualties in a war. 

Sputnik and Equity

 An article on "equity", which is tl:dr, but it's a hook for a memory--we're coming up on the 55th anniversary of the launch of Sputnik, which set off a panic. The wikipedia article is rather narrowing focused. My memory is that education was impacted as well--sputnik was seen as reflecting weaknesses in US schools, particularly in math and science.  There was also a perceived lack of focus on talent; education schools were seen as under the influence of John Dewey and progressive education.

Part of the response to Sputnik was the 1958 National Defense Education Act, which included student aid and an emphasis of science.

We didn't talk about equity back then, but it seems the pendulum has swung the other way now.

Organic Cotton--Benefits Other Than Yield?

 Here's an assessment of the impact of growing organic cotton in India. It seems the  result is not higher yields (no surprise) but the benefits which are less tangible. I note the support from a number of NGO's and the psychic rewards of being involved in something of a crusade, or at least a good cause, rather than just grubbing for the added dollar.  

A cynic would believe that those who chase the monetary rewards will, in the long run, win out. 

 

Kilcullen II

 I blogged previously about David Kilcullen's book.  Not done yet. 

Interesting discussion of the Russia military, particularly in light of their performance in the Ukraine.   One striking bit is the idea of "escalate to descalate"--fast, aggressive strikes to establish a position where resistance is unlikely.  

One example was the Georgian war.  It seems as if the original Russian plan for Ukraine 2022 was the same--a fast strike to decapitate Ukrainian leadership, take Kyviv before NATO could respond.  There's also the possible use of nuclear weapons--small nukes (300 ton TNT equivalent)--use them early betting that retaliation will be hindered by the need for an alliance to coordinate.

Kilcullen describes the evolution of the Russian military since the breakup of the Soviet Union, but might have been surprised that the reforms haven't been as effective in Ukraine as they were thought to be.

Hasidic School in New York

 NYTimes recently ran an article, seeming to show that because of their political clout, Hasidic schools spend most of their time on religious subjects, slighting the basics, which mean their students, particularly boys, do not pass state exams. The article has led to a lot of discussion.

When you have a diverse society, we have a problem in drawing lines. Over my life the society has often backed off an original decision: no facial hair for military, no afros, no turbans for Sikhs, etc. The Amish do schooling up through 8th grade only, and don't participate in Social Security.  There's no problem with the hijab and the burka, the sari and the whatever, though low-slung jeans that show underwear are, or were, controversial.

There's always been controversies over books in school, not to mention the behavior of teachers.  No pregnant teachers in the past, no beards, etc. We once wanted books which embodied the Protestant version of Christianity.  I don't remember whether, when we said the Lord's Prayer every morning in my school, whether we said "debts" or "trespasses". 

There's always tension between the authority/teachings of the professional teacher and the authority/teachings of the parents (and these days, between parents who are separated or divorced).

I wonder how nations who are more diverse than the US, such as India or Indonesia, handle the lines.  I doubt we'll ever get consensus on the lines.  

Vertical Farming

 Here's the "manifesto" of a bunch of vertical farming outfits.

I still wonder about profitability. 

Watch Out for Biplanes

 They killed the last two American troops who were attacked from the air (towards the end of the Korean war.)

That factoid from David Kilcullen's The Dragons and the Snakes: How the Rest Learned to Fight the West. I'm about 100 pages in, finding it interesting and convincing.  So far he's using an ecological/evolutionary approach to the recent history (say from 1991 on) of war, and the changes in how the opposing parties have changed their tactics and strategies, mostly learning from defeats.

One observation is that NSA can gather much more data than they can analyze. Terrorist/insurgent organizations don't rely on privacy laws, but on hiding in the woods of all the other data. I think that also applies to the average citizen--we get lost in the mass of data, so we don't need to be paranoid. 

Future Job Losses--Data Entry, Secretaries

 Ran into a projection of occupantions predicted to lose jobs over the next 10 years. Don't have the link. As I recall, data entry types, secretaries, and (personal/executive) assistants were big losers.

My guess is that's continuing a trend as the impact of computing and the internet affects office work.  As we develop systems online more of the data entry is outsourced to the user, the customers.  Even IRS may be moving in that direction. And the secretary/assistant category likely reflects moving work from "auxiliaries" to their "principals", both a move from formal communications (letters with multiple copies) to informal (email and texts with electronic copies) and the increased capabilities of software.  Bottom line: people believe it's faster and more efficient to do their own email than to have an auxiliary do it; easier to arrange their own travel; easier to be available for texts and calls on cellphones with software tools for screening than to rely on human screeners.  

There might also be a decline in the value of "servants" (which after all is what secretaries and assistants are) in signalling status.  We don't notice it, but I think there may be a decline in the number of chauffeurs, butlers, chefs the rich have these days, at least compared to the very rich.   There may be an exception for entertainers, like athletes and movie stars.  The premium on the physical, both fitness and appearance, means it's worth paying for personal trainers, hairdressers, etc.  

Me and Drezner

 I always found Dan Drezner interesting to follow, on twitter, blogging, and in the Post.  Now he's moved to Substack and is trying to drum up readership.

He offered three contrarian positions for consideration as possibly attracting interest.

Here's my comments:

Trump voters? May not be that interesting.  Remember the yellow dog Democrats? We have rattlesnake Republicans, people who've always voted Republican and will continue to do so.  I grew up in upstate NY where if you wanted a choice, you voted in the Republican primary.  It took Goldwater's candidacy to break the hold, at least for a while.

Globalization? I'm too old to change from being a free trader.  We don't yet know how to have a good safety net for those displaced by it, but I was one of the liberals in the 60's and 70's who opposed Ike's "trade, not aid" (IIRC).  Turns out he was righter than we thought. I can't get past the changes in what we called the Third World..  Anti-globalism is just an example of the thermostatic effect on a world scale.

Pandemic northingburger?  That's too obvious to be interesting, at least when confined to IR. Sociologically, a different story.

Events Which Change Elections

NYTimes newsletter from Nate Cohn discussing election polls, also whether the Clinton indictment was a possible parallel to the impact of Dobbs on the campaign.

In comments there I suggested that Sputnik was in some ways comparable--a surprise event, raising the importance of a new issue, close enough to impact the 1958 elections in which Dems did very well --48 House and 15 Senate.

It helped that there was a recession in 58 and Ike was in his second term. It set the stage for JFK's pledge to get the nation moving and for the (false) concerns about "missile gap."

Plastic in the Ocean

 Fairfax has recently banned plastic shopping bags.  I've seen calculations of how many times you'd have to use a durable shopping bag of different types to balance the impact of plastic bags on the ecology.  What the calculations miss is the cost of collecting bags from the landscape, and the seascape. which must easily make the durable bags worthwhile. Bottom line: you have to calculate the cleanup costs to have an accurate picture.

When in Trouble...

 When in trouble or in doubt

Run in circles scream and shout.

Herman Wouk--Caine Mutiny  

(My memory is Wouk made it seem like a quotation, but it seems it was original with him.)

For Politicians:

When in trouble or in doubt

Spend money any amount.

Does Studying History Pay?

 Saw a chart of earnings by field of study in a newspaper today.  Interesting enough "history" earned more than computer programmer. (The thrust of the article was that students were being pushed towards STEM majors.)

Government Salaries

 Today in the NYTimes Magazine the ethics column written by Prof. Attiah has a letter from a young attorney-to-be, who will have $150K in student loans and dislikes the idea of working for a big firm where:

The salary would be enough for me to pay off my loans, help my family and establish a basic standard of living for myself — plus maybe own a house or even save for retirement, which would be impossible for me on a public-interest or government salary.

I'm not sure what the writer thinks a "basic standard of living" involves. FWIW new attorneys for the federal government start at about $56K (with locality adjustments). 

When Did Ass Become (Semi-)Proper?

 An article in the Harvard Magazine described the Harvard Law experience of a woman who preceded RBG (Orin Kerr linked to it in a tweet).  The author describes a class where women were grilled over past legal cases with language which would be embarassing.  Hers was a case involving a farmer's ass (donkey) who got out onto the road.  This happened in 1956, a year I remember well enough to know that "ass" was never mentioned in polite society; neither was "butt" for that matter, except in the context of cigarettes.  

I've been struck by changes in language usage over the years--"ass" being one.  These days it seems pretty common in the print media, much more so in entertainment.  So I decided to do an ngram search. In America its frequency of usage seems to take off in the mid '90's, reaching a peak in 2014 and declining slightly since.  (The British usage pattern differs.)

Unbelievable--So Much for White Superiority

The other day the Times had an article discussing the composition of the cabinet selected by PM Truss, which notably had no white males in the top four positions. Rather buried in the depths of the article was this fact: 

In part, the gains in government by people of color reflect social change and advances through education. On average, ethnic minority pupils have outperformed white Britons at school in recent years. In every year from 2007 to 2021, white pupils had the lowest entry rate into higher education.

I'm used to looking at the various breakdowns of statistics about our society and seeing what I might call the "usual suspects"--that is, Euro-Americans or Asian-Americans at the top, if the statistic relates to something good (wealth, income, etc.) and Afro-Americans and Hispanic-Americans at the bottom. The positions reversed if the statistic relates to crime, helath, life expectancy, etc.

We see that so often we, at least I,  start thinking it's the expected order, which is just a step away from being "natural". 

But this statistic from the UK upsets those expectations. And it raises the key question: what the hell is going on; why the difference in societies? 

The Hero in History

 As part of a seminar on historiography I had to read Sidney Hook's book with this title.  Still have the paperback somewhere in the house, and I can remember the crimson cover, but not anything of its contents.

The issue is and was whether the individual can influence the course of history. The answer I give now, whether or not it represents Hook's conclusions: it depends, sometimes "yes", sometimes "no". 

It partly depends on the level of analysis. A story today in the Post on the death and burial of a WWII paratrooper, who fought heroically and was part of the force liberating a slave labor/concentration camp, where he formed a connection with a 17-year old inmate. He began working for peace.  Did he change the world?  No, 

Gorbachev died the other day--he changed history. You can safely say the Cold War would not have ended in the way it did if any other communist leader had been in office. 

Jury Duty and Historians

 I had jury duty for one month when I lived in DC. A big room of us gathered in the morning, waiting around for a panel to be called or for the manager to call it a day.  It was boring, but the juries were interesting. I think I was called for 4 cases, got on three juries.  The fourth was a marijuana case.  I took the position that I couldn't be objective and was excused by the judge. I look back on that now with some amazement--I think in the same situation today (though I'm too old for Fairfax juries) I probably wouldn't say a thing.  Did my opinion of pot change? Perhaps. But I don't remember ever believing in legalizing it; decriminalize it was, I think, my likely position in the early 1970's. These days I don't know; I've probably voted to legalize it but I don't know if it's the right answer.  It's the popular position these days, but I'm not totally convinced it's working out. 

Bottomline, I'm less confident now, because I'm older, have seen more, have changed my opinions more.

How does this tie to historians?  A juror is required to put aside one's personal feelings and convictions and become an objective trier of fact.  That's what I couldn't commit to back then. I'd argue a historian as a teacher is required to do the same; as a research scholar also. 

The Role of Robots

 Matt Yglesias has a piece at substack on the need for robots, attacking the thesis that robots will take away workers jobs.

I didn't study it, but it did cause me to think about farming and robots. My impression is that robots and AI are making rapid progress. Robotic milking in dairy, self-driving tractors, flame-throwing weeders, big data and precision agriculture. At least in the world of farming I don't see robots taking jobs.  What seems to be happening is two-fold:

• reduction in immigration, which mostly supply the low-end work. When TFG tries to build a wall reducing immigration, that increases the incentive for robots. When robots are developed that reduces the incentive for immigration.  
• reducing the number of real farms--most obviously in the world of dairy. The investment in robotic milkers means you need a bigger operation to make it economical, which means the big farms drive out the small dairies. 

Smiley on Farming

Jane Smiley is an award-winning novelist; her book "A Thousand Acres" is King Lear updated to 1980's Iowa.  Here she  reviews "Bet the Farm", describing a couple's return to an Iowa farm owned by her father-in-law.  It came out last year. Smiley's review annoys me, but I did put a hold on it with the Fairfax library.

I wonder if there any good books by someone who's been farming their entire life, doing it full time without a sideline providing cash income? 

Runaway Administrative Agencies

 The title is a phrase from a libertarian team's take on how to improve our politics and government. It's mentioned in passing as self-evident truth, without any suggestions that I see to make Congress more effective. 

I take exception, of course.  I am, after all, a bureaucrat.

The problem is not runaway agencies, not usually, but the failure of Congress to act so they either:

1. pass laws which don't resolve issues but insteand  kick them over to the agencies.
2. fail to act, leaving a vacuum which the courts and agencies are forced to fill. 

Weapons Maintenance

An ex-Marine writes here  about the difficulties in properly cleaning/maintaining weapons.  I wasn't a Marine, but the piece seems valid to me. 

It struck a chord because I remember the captured soldier in the early days of the Iraq war.  For a while she was made an icon of the fighting woman.  Eventually it turned out that her weapon jammed so she never fought.  I had sympathy for her.  I don't think I ever cleaned my weapon in Vietnam.  As a matter of fact, there was a screwup in getting my departure orders to me, so it was a mad dash to get to Camp LBJ and go through out-processing, one step of which was turning in my weapon. When I tried to, the guy (spec-4 maybe?) refused to take it until I cleaned it.  I tried to explain the situation, my flight was due out shortly, but he was adamant.  Finally I threw some money at him >$50<$100 and he agreed to take it.

I made my flight. 

(It seems possible that the Russian soldiers fighting in the Ukraine have been as lax in their maintenance as I was. )