Centralize Data--Yes or No

 President Biden, through the press secretary, says no centralized database for vaccinations. 

The General Accounting Office says we need centralized data for the virus.

I can see Biden's thinking--the right has this paranoid fear of centralized databases and of vaccination passports, so why give them an opening to attack you in one of the areas in which you are strongest? 

But as a ex-bureaucrat and nerd I think GAO is likely right. 

Remembering or Failing To

 New Yorker has an article on memory, partially geared to the idea that forgetting is part of having a healthy memory. 

I think I have had a good memory, certainly one for facts, because I like to be the "know-it-all".  There's discussion in the article of people who remember lots of events in their lives (supposedly the average person can list only 10 events per year). If I dug and worked at it, I could perhaps get up to the 10 per year for my early years.  Many of my memories are detached from years, and have sort of melted into an amorphous mess.

For example, I remember one year of lots of snow, people who lived on some of the back roads were cut off for days. I think it was the first year, maybe the only year, when snowplows used snow blowers as well because they simply could shove the snow far enough off the back roads with high banks.  But I've no idea of when that was.

Recently my memory is getting faulty--perhaps just old age.  I'm starting to rely on Google Assistant to prompt me on things. Now the question:  will I forget how to use Google assistant?

Free Trade and Religion

 Noah Smith has a Substack thing, and in this post argues that experts, like public health people vis a vis masks and economists on free trade, have lied.  Masks do help and free trade hurts some people and some countries (when a multi-country trade agreement is implemented).

There's a lot of comments, too much for me to engage so I'll comment here.

Smith says, I think, that the lying is understandable but doesn't like it because it's elites deciding what's good to tell people. 

In some ways I'd argue that the economists' perspective is a Christian one--an expansion of the Golden Rule. The economists are saying that overall the benefits of free trade are greater than the losses.  The Golden Rule is usually stated as a one-on-one rule, but a reasonable expansion would be to say: act so that the world is a better place for its inhabitants, then free trade fits. 

Trying to Define Hemp

 It seems there's another problem in defining hemp--we know it can't have a lot of THC, but now there's a "isomer" called Delta 8-THC. Is it natural or not?  Apparently it makes a difference in legality.  See this piece for more detail and more accuracy than those sentences.

Pandemic Data Problems

 I've posted a time or two on the need for the federal government to improve its statistical/data collection processes.  

Here's a long discussion of the problems with the covid-19 data collection.

Spring Is Here

Got into the low 80's in Reston today, with lots of wind.  But the daffodils are blooming, some trees are blossoming, the cherry blossoms will be out next week, the peas, lettuce, spinach, and radishes are sprouted and above ground.  

It's good to be still alive today.  

Republicans--Original Practitioners of Identity Politics?

 Current reading in David Reynolds' "Abe" showed me this cartoon attacking Lincoln and the Republican party.  If the captions are too small to read, below is the Library of Congress summary: 

Abraham Lincoln's supporters are portrayed as radicals and eccentrics of various stripes. The satire is loosely based on an anti-Fremont cartoon from the previous presidential race, "The Great Republican Reform Party" (no. 1856-22), also issued by Nathaniel Currier. Here Lincoln, sitting astride a wooden rail borne by Horace Greeley, leads his followers toward a lunatic asylum. Greeley instructs him, "Hold on to me Abe, and we'll go in here by the unanimous consent of the people." Lincoln exhorts his followers, "Now my friends I'm almost in, and the millennium is going to begin, so ask what you will and it shall be granted."

•  At the head of the group is a bearded man, arm-in-arm with a woman and a Mormon. He claims to "represent the free love element, and expect to have free license to carry out its principles." The woman looks at Lincoln, saying "Oh! what a beautiful man he is, I feel a 'passional attraction' every time I see his lovely face." The Mormon adds, "I want religion abolished and the book of Mormon made the standard of morality."
•  They are followed by a dandified free black, who announces, "'De white man hab no rights dat cullud pussons am bound to spect' I want dat understood."
•  Behind him an aging suffragette says, "I want womans rights enforced, and man reduced in subjection to her authority."
•  Next a ragged socialist or Fourierist, holding a liquor bottle, asserts, "I want everybody to have a share of everybody elses property."
•  At the end of the group are three hooligans:
•  one demanding "a hotel established by government, where people that aint inclined to work, can board free of expense, and be found in rum and tobacco." 
• The second, a thief, wants "the right to examine every other citizen's pockets without interruption by Policemen."
•  The last, an Irish street tough, says, "I want all the stations houses burned up, and the M.P.s killed, so that the bohoys can run with the machine and have a muss when they please." Source: Reilly.

More USDA Programs

Secretary Vilsack announced new programs and more money for existing ones. 

I didn't see any more money for FSA administration but I just skimmed.  

Lincoln's Shoemaker Was Lynched

  Reading David Reynolds' "Abe: Abraham Lincoln in His Times".

Some Springfield, IL blacks did well, including Lincoln's barber and shoemaker. But in the 20th century the shoemaker was lynched. William Donnegan, page 410.

Court Decision on Organic/Hydroponics

 Judge has ruled USDA can include hydroponics in the "organic" category.

Followers of Rodale, like my late mother, will not be happy.

Hard Working Row Crop Farmers

 This is dedication, or perhaps just the usual spring-rush routine. Never lived on a row crop farm so I don't really know.

What Are Socially Disadvantaged Farmers?

 CRS has an explanation which should cause every reader to shed a tear for the poor FSA personnel who have to deal with the different definitions.

Here's a table showing the numbers:

The Pull of the Familiar, the Push of the Foreign

Both the Post and Times  had Sunday articles discussing the Asian American community in Atlanta. The Post had a map showing its recent growth, which was concentrated in certain areas.

What struck me was the likelihood that the concentration mostly reflected the choice of the immigrants, the desire to live in areas with people with whom you might share something.  (Since "Asian-American" covers some 20 countries or so, you might not be able to speak your neighbor's language, but presumably you might have neighbors more accepting of you than in a 95 percent white, or 95 percent black, community.)  

It's always hard to untangle the factors behind residential concentrations (I almost wrote "segregation" but concentration is the better term.)  All other things being equal, a person might decide where to live based on the likelihood of finding people with similar backgrounds, tastes, opinions, values, or based on the fear of having to deal with strangers. 

Then moving from the viewpoint of the person moving into a residence to the viewpoints of the potential neighbors you bring up other factors.  I'd venture that in most cases in today's America the weight of the emotion involved is heavier on the side of the mover, than on the side of the neighbors.

Back in the day we had "lily-white" areas, so someone moving in of a different race could cause the potential neighbors to have a lot of emotion.  I don't think we have "lily-white" areas much these days, so there's less emotion.  Where you get emotion is NIMBYism, questions of zoning in particular.

Fox Versus Hedgehog; Goats Versus Sheep

 The philosopher Isaiah Berlin made his name with the essay The Hedgehog and the Fox, where the hedgehog has one big idea, the fox knows several smaller ideas.

Someone has investigated sheep and goats--turns out goats are better problem solvers than sheep, possibly because goats forage for their food, exploring everything which might be edible, while sheep specialize in grass., even though they're related species and both were domesticated early.

Congressional Review Act Not Used

 Apparently the Biden administration is opting for slow and possibly sure over fast and challengeable.  That is, rather than using the Congressional Review Act to undo last minute Trump regulations they're using the Administrative Procedure Act process--notice of proposed rulemaking, etc. The CRA could be done, but it has a kicker that when used, the agency can not later issue new regulations the same or reasonably similar to those which were killed.  

In a sense, a CRA kill is a permanent veto unless a future Congress enacts a new authority.

The Intelligence of Sperm Whales

Apparently sperm whales were intelligent enough to change their living patterns in response to humans hunting them in the 19th century.  Instead of gathering together, they learned to hightail out of Dodge when hunters appear.

It seems to me that one of the gradual changes in culture/science over my lifetime is the erosion of the boundaries between humans and animals.  It used to be a high wall, but these days we more often view humans as animals and animals as intelligent, whether it's sperm whales, ravens and other covids, octopus, etc.

1988 and 2016 in Broome County

 This site has maps of how each county voted in presidential elections from 1820 to 2020.  Naturally I looked at Broome County.  I was aware it was solid Republican through the years. It was back and forth for a while, but in 1856 it went Republican and continued for over a century.  In 1964 it voted for LBJ, but returned to the Republicans through 1984. Beginning in 1988 it went Democratic, with the exception of 2016. 

Trump and Goldwater are the two outliers in its history.  Interesting that Broome disdained the second and liked the first.

One Day

 Gene Weingarten, the humor columnist for the Post, wrote One Day describing events on one random day (Dec. 28, 1986 as it happened), specifically what some people did and what happened to people on that day, with the ramifications down the line.

The top two reviews on Amazon are 4 stars, which reflects the fact that in a group of stories, some will not appeal to some people, perhaps particularly the downers.

I'd give it 5 stars, just for the story telling and Weingarten's style. Because the stories are selected, they don't fit standard narratives--the wife-beating ends happily, for example.

Vertical Farming and Pot as an Example

 I think I'm now using "vertical farming" as a label for any high-tech growing system under artificial lighting.  In that regard. this Modern Farmer piece notes the environmental impact of growing pot indoors. Whether it's marijuana leaves or lettuce leaves, there's a tradeoff. 

Protecting Our IT Infrastructure--and Bureaucracy

 Fred Kaplan has a Slate article on the problem of preventing attacks on IT infrastructure.  NSA has the charter to prevent attacks from foreign countries, but is prohibited from handling attacks based in the US, which is the loophole used by the recent Tradewinds attacks

Secretaries Gates (DOD) and Napolitano (DHS) had a plan to fill the hole, but Kaplan's piece gives the sorry history of how the workings of bureaucracy, NIHism, and different policy outlooks made the plan fail. 

Working across organizational divisions is always problematic.  VA and DOD have the problem of health records between active/reserve military and veterans; the FBI and NSA have the problem in counter-intelligence operations; State and DOD have the problem of state-building (e.g. Iraq, Afghanistan); SCS and ASCS had the problem in handling sodbuster/swampbuster problems. 

Silos.  You can't live without them, you can't live with them.

Clayton on Farm Loans and ARPA

 Chris Clayton who writes for Progressive Farmer has more clout than I do, or is smarter in the ways of USDA press.  He got data from USDA on the size and number of farm loans which FSA has made or guaranteed, plus the breakdown by socially disadvantaged farmers. Here's his writeup.

If you're interested, you should read it.  Things which strike me now:

• He lists the top states in socially distanced loans. As always, assumptions will mislead--Oklahoma, California, and Wisconsin are on the list, but Alabama and the Carolinas aren't, and Mississippi is the last one listed.  I've nothing better to do than speculate, but my guess is some states, like Oklahoma, jumped on the legislative changes for such loans, and promoted them (or maybe they had especially active NGO's among minority groups).  With that in mind you can guess that many loans have not gone to black farmers, but other groups.
• Much of the publicity around the debt forgiveness payments seems to have been centered around black farmers associated with the Pigford suits. I haven't seen any discussion of a seeming paradox: farmers claiming their loan applications were denied because of discrimination but now working for forgiveness of their loans.  (I wrote "seeming" because I can imagine circumstances in which it would make sense, at least for some.)
• I wonder if women's groups will push for a "correction" to the law to include them as "socially disadvantaged". 
• I hope there will be good data from the implementation of this provision. If my speculation is right will there be discontent among the black advocates for it? I remember seeing one activist commenting that the lawyers made out well from the Pigford suits, but not the farmers. He might find a similar problem now--other minorities getting more money and black farmers less than they had expected.

Freedom Versus Fairness--the Pandemic and Fischer

 Some time ago David Hackett Fischer wrote a book comparing the USA and New Zealand.

I thought of that book when I read this Post opinion piece. 

As you might understand from the title, Fischer sees the societies as different.  Although they're both "settler societies", the key to the US is "freedom", the key to New Zealand is "fairness".   I remember his argument was in part based on the histories--we fought the British to establish autonomy, freedom; New Zealand was settled later when the UK had learned better to deal with their colonies.  Also, in the years between the settling of America and the settling of New Zealand the nature of British society had changed from a hierarchical aristocratic society to one with the urban working class arising. 

While I remember Fischer dealing with the Maori influence on the overall society, I can't say he saw the same factors as in the op-ed.  But the overall effect is the same--concern about the impact of one's actions on others, particularly the fairness of the impacts.  

So, in the pandemic we have lots of resisters to the masks and lockdowns here, because people say it impairs our freedoms.  In NZ they could impose restrictions because infecting others would be unfair. 

Smaller Houses

 According to a memoir by my grandfather, his family occupied a house in frontier Illinois of about 450 square feet on the first floor, not clear whether there was a second floor, but probably.  In that house there were my great great grandmother, my great grandfather and grandmother, and 4 children.  

One of my gripes with modern times is the evergrowing size of American houses--new houses are somewhere in the 2000+ range.  Back when I was looking for a house in Reston, I was aware the developers had built some smaller houses, trying to lower the cost of entering the market.  IIRC houses in my townhouse development ranged from $45K to 55K for 1,000 to 1250 sq. ft.  The smaller separate houses were about 950 sq. ft.  and cost roughly $45K. 

Just checked prices on Zillow--now the small house is $450K or so, while in my development houses are running about $100-125K lower.

Apparently Americans put a premium on detached housing.

The Amount of Outstanding Farm Loans

 Trying to find out the total dollars of farm loans FSA/CCC has on the books, which might be subject to the provisions for debt forgiveness payments under ARPA.

There's this quote:

FSA farm loan programs provide an important safety net for producers, by providing a source of credit when they are temporarily unable to obtain credit from commercial sources. The majority of FSA’s direct and guaranteed farm ownership and operating loans are targeted to underserved populations such as beginning farmers and socially disadvantaged producers, who generally have had a more difficult time obtaining credit to maintain and expand their operations. In 2019, FSA provided 32,240 direct and guaranteed loans to farmers and ranchers, totaling more than $5.7 billion

And this chart:

Both from this 2021 Budget document. 

I'm not sure what to make of the data--it seems that the forgiveness might cover more than half the outstanding loans.

More on ARPA

 According to the Post article yesterday, the Farm Bureau estimates the cost of the 120 percent payments to indebted socially disadvantaged farmers will be $4 billion.

One of my frustrations is the difficulty of finding  current CCC financial data.  IIRC once I found it over in the Treasury website, but it's definitely not a user-friendly process. 

I would like to find the basis for the estimate--what's the total outstanding debt for all farmers in the categories eligible for the forgiveness payments?  Just sent USDA a request for the data--will see if they can respond.

FSA and American Rescue Plan Act Provisions

 Looks to be a couple provisions of the American Rescue Plan  which impact FSA:

• a provision for paying 120 percent of outstanding indebtedness for loans made or guaranteed by USDA to socially disadvantaged farmers or ranchers.  My guess is it might be easy to administer, assuming FSA records currently record a farmer's status as disadvantaged or not.  The problem will be with those with outstanding loans who aren't disadvantaged, and will yell at the counter clerk  program tech.  Need to have the numbers of the local offices of the Congressional representatives handy.
• the other provision provides $1 billion for things which seem to be outlined in the Sen. Booker and Sen. Warnock "Justice for Black Farmers" bill.  

There is provision for $47.5 million for expenses (which won't all be FSA, but some might be.

Interest Rates Are Rising

I don't know how many more billions of dollars taxpayers might have to pay because the 10-year note rate has jumped up recently.  Probably just rounding errors now, but as someone who lived through the inflation of the late 60's through early 80's it's a bit disturbing. 

Am I Getting More Conservative?

 Maybe I am.

Consider these issues:

• I'd prefer to see bipartisan support for big initiatives, like the child allowance in the new stimulus bill, which Noah Smith describes as the most important feature of the bill. What I'm afraid is the Republicans get control of Congress in 2022 and undo what Biden's doing now, leading to more loss of faith in the capacity of government to do good things.
• I've some reservations about various changes made or proposed in the student loan program.  There's inequity there when people, like my wife, paid off her student loans and others may get breaks of various kinds. (Looking back, I think we'd have been better off if we expanded the number and maximum amounts of Pell grants.)
• I don't like "defund the police".  I'd rather see a boost in police funding paired with a program to move some responses to 911 calls to social services. IMHO you won't get police cooperation and buy-in without some sweetening for them.
• I'm not really on board with trans-women competing with cis-women (hope I have the terminology right), at least not when they're able to win.  Again I'm concerned for the tone of society, more than the philosophical approach to rights. 

Mobility in the Past

 Just finished "Kindred: Neanderthal Life, Love, Death and Art".  As I've written before, it's more technical and detailed than I needed, but interesting.  I come away from it, as I did from an earlier book on DNA results from testing homo sapiens from various archaeological sites, knowing the images I grew up with are wrong. 

Among the differences what stands out is the variety and mobility of past humans. In the case of Neanderthals they moved a lot, being hunter-gatherers and therefore following the game.  Lots of new science in the field, both DNA and other. Tracing tools back to the beds of rock where the stones originated from shows a lot of movement.  Looking at the isotopes of minerals in teeth which record diets and locations also show movement.

One of the things harder for me to grasp is the idea that 2 percent of Euro-Asian genes are Neanderthal.  I take the scientist word for it, but my mind skitters away from trying to figuring out the steps of the analysis which would reveal that.

Interesting--a footnote reminds that African genomes are richer in variety than Euro-Asian genomes, because of a bottleneck we experienced during the exodus from Africa. 

On an unrelated note, except it's mobility, Tom Ricks in a NYTimes book review notes that a Roman captain served both in the Middle East and in England.

Basic Income Test

 Annie Lowrey has a piece in TheAtlantic about a basic income experiment in Stockton, CA. Using private donations, some individuals got $500 a month to spend as they wished.  She asserts it worked out well.

"Stockton has now proved this [a hand up is better than a handout] false. An exclusive new analysis of data from the demonstration project shows that a lack of resources is its own miserable trap. The best way to get people out of poverty is just to get them out of poverty; the best way to offer families more resources is just to offer them more resources."

I like the idea of experiments, but it's hard for government to run them. I like this one and the result, but I'm put off by the first two sentences:

Two years ago, the city of Stockton, California, did something remarkable: It brought back welfare.

Having lived through Reagan's demonizing of welfare queens, and the attacks on ADC for disrupting parental relations, I've a knee-jerk reaction to "welfare".  Similarly, when Sen. Romney proposed his Family Plan I had an initial positive reaction, but then when I saw someone comparing it to welfare I grew concerned. My mind's still open on the issue, but judging by my gut I fear for the viability of such proposals.

Neanderthals Weren't Dumb

 Reading the book "Kindred: Neanderthal Life, Love, Death and Art".  I've some reservations about the level of detail and the rather literary preludes to each chapter, but the gist is eye-opening.  Science has learned so much more about Neanderthals than I realized.  Modern technology has enabled very detailed reconstructions.

The bottom line is the species knew what they were doing. 

That doesn't mean that Gov. Abbott knows what he's doing.

Signs of Spring

 Crocus blooming along Reston parkway, school buses on the roads, hints of buds on trees, onion sets planted in garden.  Sun streaming into my windows (which are really patio doors used as windows. 

Maybe Trump Was Right?

Right about unnecessary government regulations, that is. 

My wife and I had to set up a new account with our bank this week. The number of questions one has to answer has gone up (like are you closely related to any corrupt foreign leader?) and the number of pages of legalese which one has to ignore has expanded.  No doubt this keeps a number of lawyers in full employment, but it seems foolish. It seems as though there should be an easier way.

Having vented my frustration, I realize what we have here is an arms war between competing sets of attorneys--both sets aiming to obtain the most money they can for themselves and their clients, with one set on the side of right and the public interest and the other set on the side of enterprise. 

And no, Trump wasn't right. He represents the extreme of one side of the arms war.

Election Reforms from the Past

 Thanks to someone (on the right but I forget the name) I looked up the Carter-Baker Federal election commission.

A blast from the past is this paragraph on the commission's homepage:

Full Report PDF (7.6MB) or Text Only
(Download will take approximately 20 minutes on a dial-up connection, 4 minutes on a cable or dsl connection, and under 30 seconds on a LAN.)

Apparently the report failed to attract support, perhaps for reasons indicated by the dissent.  Personally I like the idea of standard photo ID for voting, but that's my nerd/bureaucrat coming out.  I'd spend a few billion to get those IDs into the hands of everyone (including the majority of Native Americans (or possibly only Navaho members) who don't have individual mail service.)) and the very old, and then phase in use of the requirement.  I know liberals don't like this, and it's reasonable to say it's not cost-effective: the amount of electoral fraud due to identity fraud is small. 

 But, and it's a big but, many on the right don't trust the system. Republicans have lost the popular vote in seven of the last eight elections, and that trend is likely to continue, meaning the distrust will only increase.  

So my grand bargain (which I've posted about before) is phase in photo-id of everyone, along with basic data (i.e., citizen/non citizen, age) to be used for election verification and for employment verification (E=Verify).  The right get assurance about election validity and strong immigration enforcement; the left gets voting eligibility for everyone in national elections.  I think it's a reasonable deal but I'm not optimistic.

Belief in Democracy and Steven Muller

 Kevin Drum posted  concerning Republican belief in democracy, taking the position that Republicans believe in democracy, just that many do not believe in the integrity of the election process.

I commented on it, but didn't mention that it triggered a memory of a government course in my freshman year (I think--it was taught by a professor who later became head of Johns Hopkins--Steven Muller--I did not know he had a movie career.)

Professor Muller taught a course in political thought, which included Rousseau's theory of the "general will", with his rather vague, IMO, ideas on how society determines the general will. I didn't know Muller's background (Jewish refugee from prewar Germany) before today, so I don't really know whether I'm stating my own conclusions or was influenced by his take on Rousseau.  

There's the contrast between the European take on democracy, following Rousseau, and the Anglo-Saxon (that's probably not a politically correct term these days) take of Locke et.al. who emphasize process and the protection of individual rights by means of institutional arrangements. 

It seems that Republicans now are drifting away from the Lockean position, losing faith in institutions, and relying more on the comforting idea that they are the party of the real America.