There was a time not too long ago, back when President Obama’s standing was a little stronger, when you’d hear the argument that some of the Republican candidates might sit 2012 out, figuring that 2016 would present a clearer path toward victory. You don’t really hear that anymore. Mr. Obama will not be easy to defeat: his approval ratings have stopped their slide. But clearly, he is beatable. If his approval ratings are in November 2012 what they are right now — somewhere in the mid-to-high 40s — a reasonably strong Republican nominee would be about even-money to beat him, based on historical precedent. [emphasis added]It's a good analysis, which makes his current assessment of Obama's electability even more depressing.
Saturday, January 01, 2011
A Depressing Way to Start the New Year
From the Times Nate Silver-- 538 blog, in a post analyzing Sarah Palin's prospects: