Essence of Decision--I : Models of Decision Making

[Updated to reflect that it's the first post of a series.]  Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow published a second edition of Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisi s in 1997. Some have called the first and second editions "classics", but it's not in print.  

Anyhow, just started reading the library's copy--they described three decision making models:

• Rational decision-maker: Model 1. What strikes me here is describing the nation as the decision-maker--i.e., why might the Soviet Union have decided to install missiles, etc.
• Organizational decision making. Model 2.  Where the focus is on the organizations involved in the decision makers, their processes, etc.--for example, DOD's perspective versus the Combined Chiefs versus the National Security council.
• Political decision making.  Model 3. Where the focus is more on the political maneuvering among the parties.

It's early days--looks as if I can renew the book a time or two. A couple things strike me already.  

1. We actually need a Model 0.5--the Black Box decision maker, also known as essentialism.  The Soviet Union was aggressively taking over the world, etc.
2. Not sure how the models relate to historians' descriptions of events--the narrative model.

We'll see. 

Amish/Mennonite Dominance in Farming?

 

Read this tweet today:

Young Mennonites posh with cash from selling in high priced areas are stopping at random farms around here trying to buy the farmers out. Fastest growing sector of farmers in my area, along with young Amish.

— NYFarmer (@NYFarmer) April 24, 2022

Back in the day it seemed as if the "Pennsylvania Dutch" and Amish were the same, with the majority living in PA.  In the 60+ years since I'm aware that Amish communities have been established in many states in the Northeast and Midwest.  I assume the Mennonite pattern is somewhat similar.  I know not all Amish are dairy farmers, or even farmers of any type.  And I don't know how heavily they're represented among those leaving dairy farmer.

 So my question is--are close are the Amish/Mennonites to establishing a dominance in dairy farming above the Mason-Dixon line?  How about the organic and traditional (i.e. pasture/silage) types of dairy? 

I assume the statistics aren't readily available from the government. 

Legacy College Students

This Atlantic article pushing for colleges to stop giving priority to applications from children of their graduates had a tantalizing sentence:  "Johns Hopkins abandoned it in 2014, reducing the percentage of legacy students from 13 to 4 percent."

If we like meritocracy, we should end legacies.  

News Flash

Daniel Drezner who wrote a book on the infantile former guy, has some kind words for him: "Trump ... can move down a learning curve..."

His argument is that Trump spent most of the first term learning the basics of the government, so in a second term he could be more effective in implementing his policy goals, such as withdrawing from NATO and our alliances with South Korea and Japan.

Global Warming

 Bits from today's media: 

• Charlestown SC sees "sunny day" flooding of streets about once a week.
• Since then, temperatures in Fairbanks have shifted so much that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officially changed the city’s subarctic designation in 2021, downgrading it to “warm summer continental.”

Rights and Duties of "Natural Persons"

 Apparently there's an environmental/legal movement to grant/recognize rights of natural features, such as rights.  I'd guess it's an attempt by lawyers to sue on behalf of such entities against pollution, etc.  There's controversy, as might be expected, including conflicts with the LBGQ community, which seems to be the subject of this politico post.

But what intrigued me was the phrase in the post--"natural persons".  I thought of the granting of rights to "legal persons"--corporations which has recently been expanded.

Why couldn't we have a constitutional amendment to the effect that nothing in the Constitution requires that "natural persons" and "legal persons" be treated the same?

Taxes Done

It's not procreastination, really, or so I tell myself.  But we finished our Federal and VA taxes today and filed them.  Our tax rate isn't as high as the Bidens or Harris/Emhoff but we're close.   What we pay for civilization.  

Inflation and Greed

 Newshour is doing a program on corporate profits now.

There was a piece in the news today that mentioned the "rockets and feathers" effect, at least with respect to oil and gas. Crude oil prices can soar--the rocket effect--because the markets for crude are pricing the future.  Gas stations are slower to raise prices because of slack in the supply chain--current inventories were bought at lower prices.  

But while crude prices can fall quickly gas stations are likely to be slower to drop prices.

The wikipedia article also used crude/gas in the example.   I wonder about whether the effect applies much more widely.

Vikings, Medicis, Rome, Marco Polo, Last Kingdom--What Next?

We've watched those TV serials on Netflix and elsewhere--all based more or less on history. If the entertainment industry is running out of history to dramatize, I'd suggest series on the conquest of Mexico and Peru--I read Prescott's books on those subjects written in the 19th century, and mentioned them in a twitter thread--here's one of the tweets: 

Steel was a far bigger advantage than gunpowder in my opinion. And yes, there was some psychological shock, but only at the start. If you read more recent work (remember Prescott was writing in 1843) then the Indigenous people were far more impressed by horses than the weapons.

— Caroline Dodds Pennock (@carolinepennock) April 7, 2022

The Dormant Commerce Clause

This Adler post at Volokh led me to this explanation of the dormant commerce clause.  The Constitution gives Congress the power to regulate interstate commerce. The question is whether that includes the ability to limit the ability of any particular state from legislating on interstate commerce. The current answer is yes, it does, in at least some instances. The next question is what instances?  Can California require Iowa hog farmers to abandon gestation crates and chicken farmers to provide x square feet per hen if they want to sell their ham and eggs in California? 

That's the issue I wrote about here. No answers here, but at least the question has a name.