"I am a good deal in want of a House Joiner
& Bricklayer, (who really understand their profession) & you
would do me a favor by purchasing one of each, for me."
Via John Fea a letter from George Washington in 1784.
A reminder that buying and selling people isn't unique to today's sports world, it also went on centuries ago. And at least from the language, we can't tell whether George was after a slave or an indentured servant.
Saturday, March 26, 2016
Friday, March 25, 2016
Trump Voter = Archie Bunker
Seems to me the archetypal Trump supporter is Archie Bunker, of All in the Family.
(Note: I've succumbed to the inevitable by adding a Trump label. )
(Note: I've succumbed to the inevitable by adding a Trump label. )
Thursday, March 24, 2016
The Half-Life of Information
In the dispute between the FBI and Apple over obtaining access to the terrorist's cellphone data I thought of the concept in my title. Radioactive elements have a half-life, the amount of time it takes any mass of the element to emit radiation and convert to half the mass. (Not a good definition but look up wikipedia if you want better.) The point being each element decays at a set rate, fixed by nuclear physics.
Apply the same concept to the information of interest to law enforcement. Some types of information, say the DNA on a rape kit, would lose interest very gradually, perhaps losing interest entirely when the rapist is almost certainly dead of old age. Other types, perhaps the appointment calendar, would lost interest much quicker. Assuming law enforcement knew who the person was likely to see, the calendar might be of no interest once the day of the appointment is past.
It's now been more than 3 months since the San Bernadino shootings, so my guess is that much of the information has decayed into relative meaninglessness. We don't know the information, so we can't tell for certain, but I think it likely The longer it takes the FBI to access the data, the greater the chance it won't be helpful.
My point: fast access to the data is worth a lot, which should be a consideration in determining whether and under what rules law enforcement gets access.
Apply the same concept to the information of interest to law enforcement. Some types of information, say the DNA on a rape kit, would lose interest very gradually, perhaps losing interest entirely when the rapist is almost certainly dead of old age. Other types, perhaps the appointment calendar, would lost interest much quicker. Assuming law enforcement knew who the person was likely to see, the calendar might be of no interest once the day of the appointment is past.
It's now been more than 3 months since the San Bernadino shootings, so my guess is that much of the information has decayed into relative meaninglessness. We don't know the information, so we can't tell for certain, but I think it likely The longer it takes the FBI to access the data, the greater the chance it won't be helpful.
My point: fast access to the data is worth a lot, which should be a consideration in determining whether and under what rules law enforcement gets access.
Wednesday, March 23, 2016
Deaths by Terrorism, Past and Present
Now we're in a relative lull in deaths by terrorism. That seems an absurd statement, but it's the truth, as shown by this chart. What's the difference between the past (i.e. 1970's and 80's) and now?
We forget how active the IRA groups and the unionist opposition were on the killing front. We forget the Palestinian groups were terrorists in the 70's and 80's. We forget the Basque groups. We forget the small leftist/anarchist groups. Put them all together and they caused more death than ISIS and Al-Qaeda.
Perhaps it's just our amnesia. It's not the motivation--murdering because of religion was arguably what the IRA did--were they radical Catholic terrorists? I think not.
More likely it's familiarity--most of the groups had a history and their terrorism was something we were more accustomed to so it somehow seemed less dangerous. And importantly, most of the groups seemed to have a defined target, where today the ISIS terrorists seem to be attacking "Western civilizations".
Bottom line for me: chill and think historically.
We forget how active the IRA groups and the unionist opposition were on the killing front. We forget the Palestinian groups were terrorists in the 70's and 80's. We forget the Basque groups. We forget the small leftist/anarchist groups. Put them all together and they caused more death than ISIS and Al-Qaeda.
Perhaps it's just our amnesia. It's not the motivation--murdering because of religion was arguably what the IRA did--were they radical Catholic terrorists? I think not.
More likely it's familiarity--most of the groups had a history and their terrorism was something we were more accustomed to so it somehow seemed less dangerous. And importantly, most of the groups seemed to have a defined target, where today the ISIS terrorists seem to be attacking "Western civilizations".
Bottom line for me: chill and think historically.
Tuesday, March 22, 2016
Monday, March 21, 2016
Demagoguery Opportunity
FCW has a piece on moves on Internet Assigned Numbers Authority. I would not be surprised to see politicians demagogue this as ceding US authority to those untrustworthy people outside our borders.
Sunday, March 20, 2016
Amish Businesses
I've long been fascinated with the Amish, particularly from reading Prof. Kraybill's book on them. I was on a task force in the 70's with the CED of Lancaster county, who commented on her dealings with the Amish. IIRC they didn't participated in farm programs, at least not the production adjustment ones, but I think they did with the conservation cost-shares ones.
This is an article on a Kraybill talk, set up by this:
The Amish, much like the Hasidic Jews, the Mormons and some Native American tribes also lead to reflection on what is the meaning of "America"--what can cover all the variety we see.
This is an article on a Kraybill talk, set up by this:
"Over the past few decades, Lancaster County’s Amish have undergone a “mini-Industrial Revolution,” Kraybill said. High land prices plus a population explosion limited farming opportunities for rising generations, fueling a turn to carpentry, small manufacturing and other enterprises.He describes the factors in Amish culture which have fed into their entrepreneurship. It's a lesson to those of us who wonder about how society/culture operates--things are complex.
Today, there are more than 2,000 Amish businesses in the Lancaster area, Kraybill said. Fewer than one-third of local Amish households still rely on farming as the primary source of income."
The Amish, much like the Hasidic Jews, the Mormons and some Native American tribes also lead to reflection on what is the meaning of "America"--what can cover all the variety we see.
Trader Joe's Parking Lots
Via Marginal Revolution, a short piece on the economic logic of Trader Joe's tiny parking lots. (We shop there occasionally.) Bottom line: almost no one refuses to shop at Trader Joe's because they spend a little time finding a spot, or walking to the store from the adjacent street.
Wednesday, March 16, 2016
Court Gamesmanship
Having just seen my prediction for the Presidential elections go up in flames with Rubio's withdrawal, I forge ahead with commenting on the Supreme Court.
I seems to me that Obama has this strategy:
Paul Meringoff at Powerline, a conservative with whom I almost always disagree, seems to support my theory, writing this morning: " Things might look different in September, if Hillary Clinton is 25 points ahead of Donald Trump in the polls and the Republicans are headed towards losing the Senate. In that event, Garland might look a lot better."
I seems to me that Obama has this strategy:
- taking the Senate Republicans at their word--they won't vote to confirm any appointee now.
- Clinton is going to be the Democratic nominee and she's likely to beat Trump.
- if she beats Trump, there's some chance a nominee who's not a liberal icon and who's a little older will seem more palatable to the Republican Senate after election day. That's particularly true if the new Senate has a Democratic majority.
Paul Meringoff at Powerline, a conservative with whom I almost always disagree, seems to support my theory, writing this morning: " Things might look different in September, if Hillary Clinton is 25 points ahead of Donald Trump in the polls and the Republicans are headed towards losing the Senate. In that event, Garland might look a lot better."
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
We Used to Call It Block-Busting: Same Tactics, Different Group
Back in the 1960's we used to call it "block-busting": real estate agents using the fear of blacks to get homeowners to sell out. In our enlightened modern times, it's similar tactics, but now it's Orthodox Jews in the Toms River, New Jersey area. See this Bloomberg piece, hat tip Marginal Revolution.
The key difference is, of course, the aims of the group: blacks in the 60's wanted the American dream-- better homes and better schools and saw integration as a way of getting it; Orthodox in the 10's want the American dream--independence of outside control and see segregation as a way of getting it.
The key difference is, of course, the aims of the group: blacks in the 60's wanted the American dream-- better homes and better schools and saw integration as a way of getting it; Orthodox in the 10's want the American dream--independence of outside control and see segregation as a way of getting it.
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