Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Priorities for a Self-Driving Car

Sounds like Google has its priorities right--they demoed their self-driving cars again.
"Acknowledging that freeway driving is a positive step toward safer driving, Christopher Urmson, a former Carnegie Mellon University computer scientist who now heads the project, was clear in saying it would not have impact equivalent to a robot car that could safely move the elderly from one location to another."

No accidents in 700,000 miles of driving sounds good to me.  I used to think of myself as a good, slightly above average and somewhat more cautious driver than the average but I've had three accidents in my life. Haven't driven near 700,000 miles, maybe 250,000?

Monday, May 12, 2014

Reinventing Government--How Soon We Forget

Remember Al Gore?  And his reinventing government?  Apparently neither GAO nor USDA do.

A quote from a new GAO report:
In fiscal year 2012, USDA policy on supervisory ratios did not align with Office of Personnel Management (OPM) guidance that states that an analytical approach can help agencies achieve the right balance of supervisory and nonsupervisory positions to support their missions. Instead, USDA's policy stated that all its agencies, regardless of their missions, should aim for a target ratio of one supervisor for at least nine employees (1:9). USDA officials were not able to provide a documented basis for this target ratio. In addition, USDA did not ensure that the service center agencies calculated their supervisory ratios the same way. As a result, USDA did not receive comparable information on supervisory ratios.
 Now I firmly believe that Al's National Performance Review  included an initiative to reduce the number of supervisors (though I don't see it highlighted in the linked document).  I remember because in ASCS what happened was that work units were renamed without much real change in function.  I also remember because my branch ended up growing to 14 or so people, more than I could effectively manage, particularly given my weakness for taking on additional projects.  (Though I can't really blame Al for that growth.)

I haven't read the report, just the summary, but IMHO a fixed supervisor/employee ratio makes no sense.

Maps Today and Yesteryear

I remember my college history 101 course.  Part of the exercises was taking mimeographed maps and drawing the outlines of the various historical entities (like the boundaries of the Roman empire).

Compare that with today--take for example this Vox set of 40 maps which explain the Middle East.  The Internet and the computer make graphics so much better, and more available than we had 50 years ago.  And that's totally ignoring GIS.

Economists say our productivity is no longer increasing as fast as it once did.  I suspect the problem may be their statistics aren't up to the task of measuring the modern economy. 

Thursday, May 08, 2014

Can You Truly Buy Organic at Walmart?

A Slate article argues that Whole Foods is losing its edge in organics, due to the competition from Walmart.  Maybe it's time to sell my Whole Foods stock?  If the difference(s) between organic and non-organic apparent to our senses are most evident in the label, maybe Walmart can win this fight.  Meanwhile there's a fight over organic certification.

Can you have industrial organic agriculture?    Or how about this startup aiming for a substitute for eggs? Is this the point where the food movement and the environmental movement follow different paths? (I see they're selling through Whole Foods!)

Wednesday, May 07, 2014

How Government Works: Reports to Congress

The Post had a good piece on reports to Congress Saturday, though I don't think it was quite cynical enough. The first paragraph, but you should really read the whole thing:
Every year, as required by law, the U.S. government prepares an official report to Congress on Dog and Cat Fur Protection. The task requires at least 15 employees in at least six different federal offices.
Points I'd emphasize:

Some Congressperson gets a bee in their bonnet, maybe it's a result of a flap in the media, maybe it's a valid concern, maybe it's not their bee, but a bee in the bonnets of one or more constituents.  Maybe they can get legislation passed, something to proclaim to the homefolks the next time they run for reelection.  Maybe not.  But they can always ask for a report.

A report to Congress can be rationalized as a measure which forces the bureaucracy (which no one trusts, neither a Congressperson nor a constituent) to pay attention to the issue.  But mostly it's a paragraph in a piece of legislation which looks impressive and can be proclaimed far and wide. or simply whispered in the ear of those with the bees.  Often, as the article mentions, a provision for a report can be a method to fudge an issue, to argue that we don't have enough information to legislate wisely so let's start accumulating data, reports, so we can act down the road.  "Down the road" often equates to "kicking the can down the road".

The reality is that nothing in legislation is self-executing. President Obama does not sit down with his Cabinet member going over new laws to talk about how they're going to be executed.  Whether or not a legislative provision gets implemented is a question:  are there groups interested in the issue who are going to push the bureaucracy? are the bureaucracy's managers (from President down the line) interested in getting the issue implemented?  is there someone in Congress who is pushing the provision?  what are the other priorities for the bureaucracy? does the provision fit within the wheelhouse of an existing bureaucracy or does it fall outside the boundaries of existing agencies and offices? how conscientious a bureaucrat is involved?

The likelihood is that any provision in a legislation is going to meet some of the above criteria, but a few may not.  Assume that a requirement for a Congressional report is implemented, then the question becomes how long the implementation will last?  That depends on Congress, the public, and the bureaucracy.  Assume there was never much real public interest in a report--that it was really was put in the law to appease the Congressperson, to give them a meaningless victory.  Then the issue is how long the Congressperson will hand around and how long the bureaucracy will go through the motions.  Sometimes it happens that Father Time solves the problem by killing off or retiring the Congressperson and retiring the only bureaucrat who has the knowledge and the background of dealing with the report.  When that happens, the words in the law become dead letters; no one reading them, no one following them, no one caring.

Although the above, and the the Post article, may seem like mockery of Congress and the bureaucracy, I can argue there's a certain logic at work here.  (This will be like an argument from mid-20th century sociology: "latent functions".  Part of what's going on is a process of distinguishing big issues which can and should be handled by government from the epiphenomena (head cold makes me pompous) which our modern media throw up: the issues of the moment which seem important one day and totally frivolous the next year).  Because we as a society can't easily figure out what's important, kicking the can down the road can make sense.  If the issue is still important in a couple years, time may have clarified what approach legislation should take.  If the issue has dwindled in importance, it can be left by the side of the road, with only a report to Congress marking its demise.

Tuesday, May 06, 2014

Dwindling Rural Infrastructure

Reducing the number of post offices, reducing the number of FSA offices, reducing the number of rural hospitals, reducing the number of Vermont school districts.

Revealing Payments

The Post reports on this new law.

I wonder whether it will require FSA to list farm program payments?  I tried to read the law, but couldn't interpret the language well enough (damn head cold) so gave up.  We'll see.

Sunday, May 04, 2014

The Joys of Old Age: Earwigging

One of the joys of old age is finding pleasure in small moments.  One of the pleasures of recovering from a cold is being able to enjoy a book without guilt.  I enjoy Mr. Grisham, and got a kick out of a legal reference in his latest, Sycamore Row, which is a return to Jake, the attorney played  by Mr. McConaughey, many years ago, back before he won the Oscar.   What was the reference?  Earwigging the chancellor is a violation of legal ethics.

Mississippi has courts of chancery, over which a chancellor presides, to try issues of estates, divorce, etc.  Earwigging means talking to the chancellor outside of court to influence his or her actions.  It's unique to MS.  Only after I enjoyed a long hearty laugh at the phrase did I research and find that I should have previously seen it mentioned last fall on Volokh.com, where it came up in reference to the trial of Richard Scruggs, the MS lawyer who sued over tobacco and later pled guilty of corrupting a judge.

Monday, April 28, 2014

Small Truckers, Small Dairy Farmers

A good piece here on the plight of the small trucker--the owner/operator. It reminds me of Northview Dairy, the owners of which just sold off their cows. 

I suppose conservative economists would point to "creative destruction", the process by which the free market makes everything better and better for everyone, over the long run.  As an ambivalent liberal, I resist that.  Economic change has real costs and hurts real people. When I ask myself would the world be a better place if we froze  things as they were in 1950, or 1900, or 1491, I have to answer "no",  but as the great Heinlein wrote: there's no such thing as a free lunch.