Thoughts on CAFO's

Confined Animal Feeding Operations (CAFO's) are a big topic these days, and will no doubt continue to be. I offer my thoughts:

• the vegetarians point to CAFOs and say they're inherently cruel to animals, so people should eat vegetables. That's an extreme position, but it benefits from being logical and consistent.
  
• animal rights people point to CAFOs and say, as currently operated, they're cruel, so we need legislation/constitutional provisions to provide more room for chickens, etc. Vegetarians can support such measures because it seems a step on the slippery slope to total banning. Possibly some changes, like the Florida and California initiatives, will relieve the public pressure and concern over mistreatment of animals.
  
• good food people say CAFO's create the need to use antibiotics to fight disease and are otherwise dangerous (i.e., a breeding ground for MIRSA in some eyes).
• locavores say CAFO's are not local.
• neighbors say CAFO's pollute the air and water. Most notably, once a farming operation becomes so concentrated the resulting manure can't readily be used as fertilizer on the land, you get into waste lagoons and stream pollution.
  

I assume I wouldn't like a CAFO, having grown on a small dairy/poultry farm. But they result from the logic of economies of scale, which seem to work as well in agriculture as elsewhere. Despite all the efforts of the green community, I'd expect CAFO's to have a history similar to that of other growing industries. Where are the "dark, satanic mills" of yesteryear? Exxon, US Steel, GM, ATT, all had checkered histories in youth, but became more house-broken and acceptable to polite society as they aged, and as activists got government to impose regulations. So too with CAFO's. This domestication process will be aided by the greens:

• CAFO's are a lot more susceptible to environmental regulation. It's a whole lot easier to regulate one 40,000 cow dairy farm than 400 100 cow farms (for one thing, 400 dairies have a lot more votes, as well as being more familiar and more attractive).
  
• CAFO's can probably make more use of new technology. See this link on a $1 mill methane digester at an Oregon dairy. And this Brownfield piece on putting feed lots indoors. Banks will make loans more easily and the government will (until Obama's Secretary takes charge) make EQIP grants.

So, should I live another 20 years, I'd expect to see lots of CAFO's, but I'd also expect to see each one having a full-time job dealing with government regulation.

The Rational Market

Via Marginal Revolution, Virginia Postrel's very interesting discussion of academic experiments with markets. Bubbles are almost inevitable.

Graphs Are Not Facts

I stumbled across a graph of mile driven in a green site. Here Then there was one here.

And here from the gov. And this one. All the same subject, but not the same statistic, and giving different impressions of reality. Reminds me of a classic book on How to Lie With Statistics, which everyone should read around freshman year in high school.

Finally I'm Right

Ever since the breakup of the Soviet Union, I've been figuring ag prices would be pressured as Russian farmers became more efficient. Fortunately, I've never put that prediction in writing because I would have been wrong more often than not. But here's an indication the basic thought wasn't bad (via farmpolicy):

(In a related article regarding wheat, Reuters news reported yesterday that, “Russia faces a grain glut in 2009 as it prepares to harvest another bumper crop, putting domestic prices under pressure and overwhelming storage capacity already stretched by this year’s crop, the biggest in about 15 years…[F]armers in Russia, the world’s fifth-largest grain grower and exporter last year, have invested in new technology and land to increase their harvests and take advantage of booming world commodity prices that have since plummeted sharply.”)

There's also a discussion of transition discussions on ag there.

Sign of the Times

Someone admits to a Ponzi scheme, not $50 million dollar Ponzi scheme, but a $50 billion Ponzi scheme, you'd think it'd be front page news on the Times and Post?

No, didn't even make the front business page of the Post. Unreal. (Did make the Times business page.)

Almost as unreal, the guy delayed confessing so he could spread a few hundred mill among friends and relatives.

FSA, Computers, and Obama

A short piece on FSA and computers from Hoosier Ag Today.

[Associate Admn] Keppy said educating the Obama transition team about computer system shortcomings was a major priority. “And it’s vital that we continue to upgrade and improve the technology that we have. I think it’s a big enough issue and I think the counties and states will make the new team very aware of the issue.”

Washing Ziploc Bags--a Liberal Trait?

Must be. My wife and I do. And here's the lede from a Post profile of Eric Cantor:

They surround Eric Cantor, these Democrats and liberals.

Here at home, there's his live-in mother-in-law with her Sierra Club membership and her baffling habit of hand-washing Ziploc bags -- "I don't know if that's an environment thing," the incoming Republican House whip and conservative bulwark wonders aloud, flashing a hint of a perfect smile.

And it's obviously an oddball trait.

When Does Horse-Trading Become Bribery

Eugene Volokh raises that issue in connectionwith Gov. Blago...'s arrest yesterday:

...my sense is that political deals of the "I appoint your political ally to X and you appoint me to Y" variety are pretty commonplace, though perhaps done with more subtlety than seemed to be contemplated here. Should these deals indeed be treated as criminal bribery? Have they generally been so treated?

After all, another Illinois man made appointments to his cabinet as part of horse-trades (notably Simon Cameron, to Secretary of War in 1861).

Volokh doesn't refer to Gov. Siegelman's conviction on a similar count, covered in a Post story today. One person quoted in the story notes that Blagojevich was looking for personal gain, at least in part, which wasn't true for Siegelman.

History and Food

Via John Phipps, the food timeline. May be better than wikipedia (see the tiramisu entry).

Obama's Choices

It seems to me Obama has many different choices, but one is whether to involve himself in the structure and operation of Congress. There are a couple of possible areas where he might be tempted:

• in the advice and consent of the Senate to his judicial nominees. He could try for a deal to change the environment, to avoid the threat of "holds" and filibusters which have been used in the past several administrations. (Something like the gang of 14.)
• in the handling of "earmarks" and Congressional micromanaging in appropriations.

In both cases the calculus is the same: do nothing and hope for support from Dems and moderate Republicans to get what you want, risking a decline of your power and support as the term goes on, or try for an early bipartisan deal and risk stirring up opposition from defenders of Congressional prerogative.

Another area might be governmental reorganizations crossing committee lines. The 9/11 commission's recommendations for realigning Congressional committees were never carried out.

I realize these aren't "Perils of Pauline", but for a political/government addict, they're close.