Luddites or Conservative

Daniel Drezner did not get tenure. Among the comments on his post was this:

danieldrezner.com :: Daniel W. Drezner :: So Friday was a pretty bad day....: "Of course, its hard not to consider the blog. Even at my top-ranked and technologically progressive university, I find that the tenured faculty members in our political science dept. have a very conservative view towards new technological approaches. None ofthem use Powerpoint, listen/assign podcasts, have/read blogs, etc. And suggestions to start a departmental blog or regular podcasts of visiting speakers has been met with a genuine lack of enthusiasm."

It's hard to stay open to new things. I like to think I do, but I find myself skipping the reviews of "graphic novels" in the Post Book Review. I can't take upscale, pretentious comic books seriously; I can't take the comic books I read back in the 1950's seriously.

LaVar, the Unbureaucrat

The Washington Redskins don't have a quarterback controversy; Mark Brunell has resolved that for now. They do have a linebacker controversy. Their best athlete and highest paid defensive player, LaVar Arrington, hasn't been playing much, although he's recovered from last year's injuries.

Why? He's not bureaucratic. The defensive coaches have a highly structured defensive "scheme "(this is the only time Americans use the word in the same way the Brits do). Apparently Arrington has difficulty following the plan during the game, as well as trouble putting his heart into it in practice.

Football is a bureaucratic game--the play book is the set of instructions, the choreography for the performance. The best I can tell, there are tradeoffs among aggressiveness, free lancing, team spirit, and following the plan. Much the same in bureaucracies.

Power Line's Delusions

The folks at Power Line fall victim to an age-old myth, the distrust of the metropolis, of the ruses and schemes of those evil people at the center who entrap the poor unwary hick from the country's heart. In a discussion of the Miers nomination, and why Bush might have appointed her:

"I think that Bush is acutely aware that the Souter nomination was his father's worst and most avoidable mistake. I think that, as was widely reported, he liked John Roberts and was impressed by him during their relatively brief interview. But what grounds, really, does Bush have to trust Roberts? How does he know he won't 'grow in office'? It seems pretty obvious to me that Bush selected Miers to make damn sure that at least one of his nominees won't drift to the left. He knows Miers well enough to know that she won't be seduced by Washington Post editorials and Georgetown dinner parties, as a number of Republican appointees have been. He doesn't think Roberts will be seduced, either, but he can't know for sure. Isn't it obvious that the reason Bush chose Miers instead of a better known, objectively better qualified nominee, is that he wanted to be absolutely sure of appointing a staunch and unwavering conservative?"

Roberts was a DC lawyer and a DC justice, so if he hasn't already been seduced by the Washington Post, he should be safe. David Souter is renowned for being only slightly more sociable than Ted Kacynski, which suggests it's not DC wine and water that's seductive, it's legal ideas presented in briefs and arguments by competent lawyers.

Tom Friedman Is Right--China's National Ballet

Tom Friedman had a column Wednesday pointing to the interaction between U.S. forces (the Navy) and Iraqi and other forces. Our forces are very diverse and women are in authority. Theirs are not. Tom argues that we're educating as we go, presenting the model of a big country that handles the stresses of diversity.

Went to a performance at the Kennedy center last night by the Chinese National Ballet. Interesting, doing Giselle Act 2, and three Chinese pieces. I was struck by the nondiversity of the company. I have no idea whether it's an artifact of the pool from which they select, or whether the company directors consciously pick them, but I'd swear both sexes adhered to a pattern in terms of height. My seat wasn't the best for making judgements, but I'd swear they deviated by maybe 3 or 4 inches tops. Any American company would have a much greater deviation.

I understand that China has lots of different languages and ethnic groups. Apparently they don't do ballet yet.

Individuals Versus FEMA, Which Is Better?

The Times Oct 5 had an interesting article on an individual who did great work in reestablishing communications after Katrina, using wireless Internet networking--apparently used in rural areas using antennas and parts of the radiomagnetic spectrum. (See note below.)

The issue is why could he do so well in comparison with a bureaucracy like FEMA. I think it's related to why the Aussie's could win the Nobel in medicine by proving bacteria cause ulcers. The points are:

• some knowledge and expertise (pathology in the case of the Nobel, WISP in the case of the Katrina)
• existence outside the established networks (one's ideas aren't prestructured by being part of a job within a web of interacting people. In the case of the Nobel, the instigator was simply an observant pathologist, not an ulcer specialist. In the case of Katrina, the guy was simply an entrepreneur who had a sideline of doing wireless in rural areas.)
  
• supportive resources (the Aussies got money for their work, the Katrina guy put up his own money, then attracted support from outsiders who wanted to help).
  

FEMA probably does not have anyone whose job is to look for ways to reestablish communications. It probably does have people whose job is to work on telephones and cell phones and radio, etc. But the wireless network is new technology, so it wouldn't be incorporated into the FEMA structure (or the structure of state emergency management, either). Even if someone in FEMA had the knowledge, it didn't fit his or her job. In the aftermath of Katrina, everyone at FEMA had to do their job.



Note: This is the Times description:

In one swoop, Mr. Dearman not only connected people in crisis, but he also illustrated the power of long-distance wireless networks, an emerging technology that uses unlicensed radio-wave bandwidth to send Internet signals into rural towns and cities, where the connections are locally accessible, much like Wi-Fi hot spots. The networks typically use microwave dishes and routers to beam and distribute the information many miles in the air from an original Internet connection.

Miers Prediction

If Harriet Miers is confirmed, I predict that early results will start talking of the "Roberts twins", as in the 70's when Berger and Blackmun were appointed together. Miers will spend some time following the lead of more experienced justices, and would logically gravitate to Roberts, as they will both be newcomers to the group and probably bonded during his confirmation battle. A few years in, Miers will start to emerge as an independent voice, much as Blackmun did and Thomas has. But the conservatives should be happy--Bush is giving them a reliable conservative vote for a few years and that's all he could reasonably promise.

I observed over on Volokh.com that both Roberts and Miers seem to work well with others, which may mean they do well in attracting support for their positions on the Court. (As a nonlawyer, I'm more impressed by the small-group sociology of SCOTUS than by doctrines.)

Why I Believe in Original Sin

Why--because there's always someone who spoils things. I've just had to turn on comment verification, which requires any commenters to prove they're human by entering the correct letters in a box, because this blog was starting to get software-generated comments advertising various things/sites.

The effect is to throw sand into the machine, to slow down the interchange of ideas, and, most importantly, to diminish the likelihood of people commenting. To libertarians and free market conservatives, I suppose this is just to be expected. To me it's like tossing your trash on the ground instead of the garbage can. I'm mad.

How Do You Get to Stockholm--Keep a Certain Distance

"Network" theory says that weakly linked networks are more powerful than tight ones. For example, if you're job hunting, your casual acquaintances are more likely to come up with good leads than your close friends and family. It's the tale of the emperor's new clothes--the adults who were into the networks of power and expectations conformed to conventions, the child asked the right question.

Here's another instance--
Two Win Nobel Prize for Discovering Bacterium Tied to Stomach Ailments - New York Times:

"Dr. Marshall said that working in a 'weird' and academically obscure location aided in the discovery because he and Dr. Warren could pursue their observations without interference from the prevailing beliefs.

'If I had come up through the normal gastroenterology training schemes in the United States, I would have been so indoctrinated on the acid theory that I wouldn't have been considering anything else and might have skipped over Helicobacter, as everyone else had done,' Dr. Marshall said in a telephone interview yesterday."

Symmetry in Opposition

One of the truisms in social science is that opposites tend to mirror image each other. To put it another way: when entitities are in conflict, a change in one causes related changes in the other. When the conflict is predator/prey, or international relations, it's often called "arms race". Admiral Jackie Fisher creates the "dreadnought", all-big-gun battleship and launches an arms race with Germany that ends in millions killed. In other realms you can see a catalytic influence--add an ingredient to the mix and things start to get more organized. In the oil industry of the 1860's-80's, J.D. Rockefeller was the catalyst, organizing and rationalizing the industry, vertically integrating the flow of oil. Competitors also had to vertically integrate.

In politics, Tom DeLay may have been a similar catalyst, with impacts on both Dems and Reps, according to this analysis in the WPost:

DeLay's Influence Transcends His Title: "His take-no -prisoners style of fundraising -- in which the classic unstated bargain of access for contributions is made explicitly and without apology -- has been adopted by both parties in Congress, according to lawmakers, lobbyists and congressional scholars. Democrats, likewise, increasingly are trying to emulate DeLay-perfected methods for enforcing caucus discipline -- rewarding lawmakers who follow the dictums of party leaders and seeking retribution against those who do not."

'Virtual Card' Should Be Example for Social Security

Washington Post yesterday had an article on "virtual credit card" numbers as an antidote to credit card theft.

"Offered to holders of Citi, Discover and MBNA cards, these 'virtual credit cards,' or single-use card numbers, are designed to give some peace of mind to consumers concerned about credit card fraud. Although the system slightly differs on each card, the principle is the same: For no extra charge, consumers sign up at the credit card's Web site, often downloading software on their computers. Then, when they're ready to shop, they receive a randomly generated substitute 16-digit number that they can use at the online store. The number can be used once or, in some cases, repeatedly at the same store."

The Social Security Administration should follow this example--allow people to get one-shot SSN's that work only for a relationship with a given organization. [ed--isn't this your hobby horse for doing away with SSN's? Yes}