natesilver: I mean, the probability of an actual or thwarted terrorist attack in the U.S. or in some NATO country over the next year or so has to be quite high. I’m not talking about something on a 9/11 or a Paris scale or anything like that, but something scary enough for Trump to use it as a cudgel to try to expand his powers. [emphasis added]The Paris attacks involved 3 attackers, the 9/11 19. The Orlando attack involved one, but killed 49.
Certainly there's some terrorist attack which could prompt Trump to ask for/get expanded powers, but what would it be?
- a multi-person attack by refugees admitted before 2017 from one or more of the seven countries
- an attack which claims victims in the triple digits or more, particularly if multi-person.
- an attack on a particular target, like a sporting event, a civic event, a notable politician or eminent figure.